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Leeners
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Member since 5/05 4898 total posts
Name: Eileen
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America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Some of the nation's frothiest housing markets are at growing risk of price declines, according to the most recent survey from PMI Mortgage Insurance Corporation.
The PMI Risk Index is based on economic activity and other conditions that PMI thinks are predictive of home-price declines over the next two years.
Factors used to derive the index include home prices, employment conditions and the affordability of homes.
At a 55.3 percent chance, the index singles out Boston as the area most at risk for a decline. That's up from 53.4 percent three months earlier.
The Nassau and Suffolk County area, in suburban New York, is right on Boston's heels. The probability of a decline, according to PMI, is 54 percent, up from 51.1 percent.
The metro area that had the biggest increase in risk is Riverside-San Bernadino, east of Los Angeles, which rose 8.3 points to 42.2 percent.
Some areas got a little safer during the quarter. Among them, Detroit had the biggest drop from 37.9 percent to 29.5 percent while New York's risk score fell from 33.1 percent to 32.6 percent.
So where are homeowners all but guaranteed to not go through a bubble burst?
They can breathe easiest, according to the PMI listing, in Pittsburgh (5.6 percent), Memphis (5.8 percent), and Indianapolis (5.9 percent). Among western cities, Seattle scored the safest, at 6.4 percent.
Here are other cities tracked by PMI, with their probability of a decline during the next two years.
Northeast Boston-Quincy, MA: 55.3%
Nassau-Suffolk, NY 54.0%
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA: 46.9%
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA: 43.2%
Edison, NJ: 36.4%
New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ: 32.6%
Newark-Union, NJ-PA: 25.1%
Baltimore-Towson, MD: 12.4%
Philadelphia, PA: 7.6%
Pittsburgh, PA: 5.6%
Midwest Detroit-Livonia, Dearborn MI: 29.5%
Minneapolis-St Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI: 24.9%
Warren-Farmington Hills-Troy, MI: 16.8%
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL: 9.2%
St Louis, MO-IL: 9.0%
Kansas City, MO-KS: 8.9%
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI: 7.0%
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH: 6.9%
Columbus, OH: 6.6%
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN: 6.0%
Indianapolis, IN: 5.9%
South Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Deerfield Beach, FL: 21.9%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-MD-VA-WV: 20.9%
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL: 16.6%
Tampa-St Petersburg-Clearwater, FL: 16.6%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC: 10.9%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA: 10.6%
Orlando, FL: 9.4%
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC: 8.9%
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA: 7.1%
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN: 6.4%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR: 5.8%
West Denver-Aurora, CO: 16.9%
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV: 13.0%
Austin-Round Rock, TX: 11.6%
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX: 9.9%
Houston-Baytown-Sugarland, TX: 9.3%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ: 9.2%
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: 8.0%
San Antonio, TX: 6.8%
West Coast San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA: 52.8%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA: 51.3%
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA: 51.2%
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA: 50.9%
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood, CA: 45.9%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA: 42.2%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA: 42.1%
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA: 41.9%
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA: 9.5%
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA: 6.4%
National average: 21.3%
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Posted 8/4/05 2:14 PM |
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Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate
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Redhead
You Live, You Learn
Member since 5/05 31871 total posts
Name: Jennifer
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
My FIL actually heard the same thing on the radio yesterday and called us up... They said that there would actually be a crash in the market.
I don't know if i believe it, but i know i pretty much can't wait for it..
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Posted 8/4/05 2:31 PM |
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Leeners
:)
Member since 5/05 4898 total posts
Name: Eileen
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
Posted by Redhead I don't know if i believe it, but i know i pretty much can't wait for it..
My thoughts exactly!
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Posted 8/4/05 2:40 PM |
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MsMBV
:P
Member since 5/05 28602 total posts
Name: Me
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
Posted by Redhead
My FIL actually heard the same thing on the radio yesterday and called us up... They said that there would actually be a crash in the market.
I don't know if i believe it, but i know i pretty much can't wait for it..
no offense, but I can wait...we just bought a house & I do not want to owe more than the market value
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Posted 8/4/05 2:56 PM |
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Redhead
You Live, You Learn
Member since 5/05 31871 total posts
Name: Jennifer
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
Posted by MsMBV
Posted by Redhead
My FIL actually heard the same thing on the radio yesterday and called us up... They said that there would actually be a crash in the market.
I don't know if i believe it, but i know i pretty much can't wait for it..
no offense, but I can wait...we just bought a house & I do not want to owe more than the market value
that is NOT what i meant... What i mean is i can't wait for the house prices to drop. meanign i am looking to buy soon. I am looking to buy no later than this fall and i am pretty confident that this decrease in value will not happen that quick.
Either way even if this drop would occur tomorrow wouldn't benefit me all that much since i am selling as well as buying
Message edited 8/4/2005 3:08:24 PM.
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Posted 8/4/05 3:07 PM |
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Redhead
You Live, You Learn
Member since 5/05 31871 total posts
Name: Jennifer
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
Posted by MsMBV
Posted by Redhead
My FIL actually heard the same thing on the radio yesterday and called us up... They said that there would actually be a crash in the market.
I don't know if i believe it, but i know i pretty much can't wait for it..
no offense, but I can wait...we just bought a house & I do not want to owe more than the market value
aren't you in florida?
Message edited 8/4/2005 3:09:07 PM.
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Posted 8/4/05 3:08 PM |
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Janice
Sweet Jessie Quinn
Member since 5/05 27567 total posts
Name: Janice
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
Posted by Redhead
Posted by MsMBV
Posted by Redhead
My FIL actually heard the same thing on the radio yesterday and called us up... They said that there would actually be a crash in the market.
I don't know if i believe it, but i know i pretty much can't wait for it..
no offense, but I can wait...we just bought a house & I do not want to owe more than the market value
that is NOT what i meant... What i mean is i can't wait for the house prices to drop. meanign i am looking to buy soon. I am looking to buy no later than this fall and i am pretty confident that this decrease in value will not happen that quick.
Either way even if this drop would occur tomorrow wouldn't benefit me all that much since i am selling as well as buying
I know what you mean, we kept waiting for "the bubble to burst" and it is not. We lost out on a ton of equity and should have bought 2 years ago.
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Posted 8/4/05 3:09 PM |
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Redhead
You Live, You Learn
Member since 5/05 31871 total posts
Name: Jennifer
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
Posted by Janice
I know what you mean, we kept waiting for "the bubble to burst" and it is not. We lost out on a ton of equity and should have bought 2 years ago.
yea i hear ya...wish i had bought a house back in 2000 or so. But i am lucky we did buy a condo which i hope to profit much on
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Posted 8/4/05 3:11 PM |
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Janice
Sweet Jessie Quinn
Member since 5/05 27567 total posts
Name: Janice
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
Posted by Redhead
Posted by Janice
I know what you mean, we kept waiting for "the bubble to burst" and it is not. We lost out on a ton of equity and should have bought 2 years ago.
yea i hear ya...wish i had bought a house back in 2000 or so. But i am lucky we did buy a condo which i hope to profit much on
good for you, we should have done something.
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Posted 8/4/05 3:15 PM |
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lorimarie
AHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!
Member since 5/05 3753 total posts
Name: Lori
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
I spoke to my RE agent b/c there is a house over in Smithtown that DH and I are interested in looking at. In talking with her she said that the market is changing every day. People are no longer getting the astronomical asking prices. Most houses are now going for about 10% less than asking - not all houses obviously but the market is definitely shifting.
She is going to evaluate my house and said she would give us a ballpark figure meaning she doesn't want to go too low but at this stage of the market doesn't want to go too high b/c then no one would be interested in looking should we choose to move.
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Posted 8/4/05 3:17 PM |
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MsG
Should be working
Member since 5/05 2824 total posts
Name: G
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
I wonder though how this will affect the entry-market, the people buying their first homes. Starter homes still seem to go quickly, and even if the prices drop what will they drop from? 350 for a shack vs. 400? still crazy.
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Posted 8/4/05 3:21 PM |
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Redhead
You Live, You Learn
Member since 5/05 31871 total posts
Name: Jennifer
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
Posted by MsG
I wonder though how this will affect the entry-market, the people buying their first homes. Starter homes still seem to go quickly, and even if the prices drop what will they drop from? 350 for a shack vs. 400? still crazy.
Yes this is what i am seeing.. houses under 400K go like hot cakes (unless something is wrong with it) 400K plus...are definitely slowing down!
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Posted 8/4/05 3:37 PM |
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randella
Love my little man
Member since 8/05 16290 total posts
Name: Randi
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
I don't even think there is such thing as a starter home in this market.. We are in contract on an apt-- granted- in a metro area right outside of the city- in Hoboken-- and it's just a little less than both my parent's homes on LI-- one is in Nassau and the other in Suffolk.. granted-- they each live in paired down homes-- being "empty-nesters", but they are 2 BRs and 3BRs.. but both me and my brother have spent way more on our first homes than our parents even dreamed of doing.. And my bro is in San Jose, CA-- another ridic market.
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Posted 8/4/05 7:43 PM |
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Moehick
Ready for the sun!
Member since 5/05 30339 total posts
Name: Properly perfect™
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
Posted by Leeners
Posted by Redhead I don't know if i believe it, but i know i pretty much can't wait for it..
My thoughts exactly!
Me too....but I would be selling as well as buying so I am sure I will get screwed somehow!
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Posted 8/4/05 7:52 PM |
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Kelly9904
Mommy to 2 amazing little boys
Member since 5/05 9306 total posts
Name: Kelly
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Re: America's Riskiest Real Estate - Nassau/Suffolk #2
Message edited 1/30/2009 1:28:05 PM.
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Posted 8/4/05 8:26 PM |
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