how can you tell what the market is going to do?

hey guys

alot of you on here really seem to know your stuff.. i however, dont.. so i was hoping i could get some advice on how to follow the housing market to be able to predict what it is going to do.. DH and i are starting our hosue search and although the market looks great now... is there any indication if it will be better or worse in say 6 months, a year.

i spoke to one real estate agent - who told me to we should buy now... not sure if that is true advice or advice from someone who wants me to buy a house from them lol


thanks in advance
you guys are great!

Message edited 11/8/2006 10:40:45 AM.

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

from what I've heard (now take it for what it is, I'm not in the business) but
the market is on a down right now and will continue to go down in the winter but probably pick up in early spring.

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

they say its a buyers market now, the market is a little soft. If you have the $$ and can afford the house go for it.

Its hard to predict how low the market will go, will houses drop to what they were 8 yrs ago doubt it, will they drop 20k, 30k yes there are houses out there that have dropped prices

I dont know if there is a concrete answer

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

Honestly - I don't think anyone knows what is going to happen in the future. What I am doing for friends who are looking to buy homes within a year - but just not yet - is that I will let them know when I start to see a turn in the market. If let's say in April prices to start sticking and the prices breaks come to a halt - I will let them know so that they can start their search.

No one has a crystal ball that can see into the future unfortunately. People can speculate all they want - but we just don't know.

Do what's right for you and your DH financially. If you are ready to buy now then start looking. If you're not ready andwant a few more months to save that's what you should do!!

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

while you cant time the market - i think this winter is a great time to buy. inventory is high and some sellers (not all of them) are reducing prices.

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

None of us can tell the future - but right now it is a buyer's market, and prices are dropping. Interest rates are still low, and inventory is high, which makes sellers more willing to negotiate. I think overall it is a good time right now, prices may continue to drop in 6 mos - 1 year, but no one can tell, and also interest rates may rise in that amount of time.

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

definately a buyers market right now. We aare beginning our search this weekend!

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

If you try to time the market you most certainly will lose. If you wait and wait you may lose out on a house you really like. Also, you may fall into waiting too long and the market will have an upswing.

If you plan on being in your home for the long term then you should just go look for your home.

You are better off starting to look in your price range and find a place that suits you for what you can afford.

It's is a buyers market right now but who knows how long that will last.

There are no definites.

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

take this for what you want- but according to my DH - who has been in the business for a while

his opinion ( and he was right about what is happening now- I have to hear it every day)

is that this will continue for the next year- then the market will level off for a few years before it goes up again

he can not predict the future- but he also gets to see alot more data then the general public sees

we are starting to look in the spring

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

According to a report by Moody's Economy.com, their analysis has lead them to believe that home prices in Nassau county won't bottom out until the 2nd quarter (April - June) of 2008.

Housing Market Prediction

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

thanks everyone for your answers,,,,, they are exactly what i was looking for... dh and i have money saved and we are in a great situation in terms of saving money right now with where we are living.... im just afraid to miss the "house bus" and have prices fly up to what they became last year!!!!

i guess we are trying to save up a very substantial down payment..... it seems thaht nowadays people are putting down a lot less - but we want to get our mortgage payment to be as low as possible!

Message edited 11/8/2006 1:33:08 PM.

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

This is definately a buyer's market. In general, real estate sales as I understand it slow down in the winter so my guess is that the market won't change for the time being.

You can also get a rough idea of how mortgage rates are going by looking at the 10-year note. The lower it goes, the lower mortgage rates will go.

HTH!

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

Well, I am also not an expert, although there is some disagreement between the experts now too, so what will happen next is anyone's guess.

Based upon what I have been reading, prices will drop through the winter, then the drop will stop in the spring. No one is expecting prices to rise dramatically over the next year--if there are increases at all, they will be very gradual. I have read that interest rates are expected to rise in the Spring.

If you can buy now, I would do it now. I do think interest rates will rise eventually, and a lot of people are sitting and waiting to see if prices have hit their bottom. My guess is that a lot of people will rush out and buy in the spring and you may face more competition and thus, pay a higher price.

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

I think if you find a house you love & the price is good now, I'd buy.
We are looking for investment properties so I'm gambling on a big dip(maybe not until the end of 07) so that I can find something with positive cash flow. I read as many articles as I can find, look at MLSLI everyday, look at zillow & Domaina & newsday for new recent sales in my target areas & wait for prices to keep getting reduced.
However we already bought our home, so if I needed to buy a house to live in I may not take the risk of waiting.

Re: how can you tell what the market is going to do?

From what I've learned through diff. brokers and reading real estate articles - the market is a buyer's market.

The best time to buy is winter b/c owner's want their houses sold, and some will lower it, but come spring time, more houses will be added the market, prices may increase slightly, but not by much with the knowledge that there are so many houses still standing without sale.