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Predictions of House Prices for the future

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danielleandscott
My new 71 Super Beetle

Member since 5/05

13476 total posts

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Scott

Predictions of House Prices for the future

Just wanted to know what you think of the prices of homes? Do you think they are going to continue to rise like they have for the past year or so, or do you think they are going to level out, or do you think they are going to drop significantly???

I think they are going to keep rising, until the house market is sooo saturated with homes for sale, and the only people that can afford them are the really rich or the really poor.

Scott

Posted 6/20/05 7:36 AM
 
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Disneygirl
Disney cruise bound!

Member since 5/05

8126 total posts

Name:
D

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

I think they'll still continue to rise but at a slower rate.

Posted 6/20/05 7:42 AM
 

DebG
Pick a cause & stand up for it

Member since 5/05

18602 total posts

Name:
The cure IS worse!

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

I think its going to pick up a bit, then start slowing down and sometime next year we will see the bursting of the bubble.

Posted 6/20/05 8:11 AM
 

Redhead
You Live, You Learn

Member since 5/05

31871 total posts

Name:
Jennifer

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

I think that the prices are going to slow down if not level off.
I do not think they are going to continue to rise they way they have over the past year or two.
Condo's and Co-op's might continue to increase slightly.

What i do think is going to happen in that interest rates will start to increase!!!

Posted 6/20/05 8:37 AM
 

ckdk
My girls

Member since 5/05

7027 total posts

Name:
Cheryl

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

I definitely don't think they will drop significantly.
Might just level off or decrease the rate of increase.

Posted 6/20/05 8:53 AM
 

LMFitz
life is good

Member since 5/05

2013 total posts

Name:
L

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

Posted by Disneygirl

I think they'll still continue to rise but at a slower rate.



I agree - especially on LI

Posted 6/20/05 10:56 AM
 

~Colleen~
my loves...

Member since 5/05

9129 total posts

Name:
guess

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

I've been told by people who have made a LOT of money in RE that we will see a burst in 18 months.............

But I take that with a grain of salt - no one can predict the RE market. Chat Icon

Posted 6/20/05 11:38 AM
 

danielleandscott
My new 71 Super Beetle

Member since 5/05

13476 total posts

Name:
Scott

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

I have been told many different things by many different people...and I dont understand how anyone can forsee what will happen in the future.

Danielle wants to wait now to buy a house, but I am worried that we will not be able to afford anything in a year or 2. Everyone I know is saying that you should buy now and not wait.

Posted 6/20/05 11:42 AM
 

CookiePuss
Cake from Outer Space!

Member since 5/05

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Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

No one can predict the future on any markets whether it be stock or real estate. However, they both move in cycles and I believe we are at the top of the real estate cycle and can expect a 5-20% drop in home prices. The 5% being for the low end real estate, 20% for high end real estate – homes that are 1 million +.

I do see a drop in the near future of about 18 months to 2 years. The reasoning for my impression a few things:

When the Fed Chairman uses the same exact verbiage for the housing market that he did in 1998/9 tech bubble for the real estate market today – it has to make you think.

Also, most mortgages taken out for 1st time home buyers or 1st mortgages in the last 12 months (over 60% of mortgages) in the high end markets like Long Island, NYC and parts of California are adjustable rate mortgages (not arms) and interest only mortgages. This leads one to conclude that the reason for these mortgages are affordability issues since they wouldn’t be able to afford a fixed mortgage payment. The traditional use of such mortgages is for property developers and real estate investors in the likes of Trump.

The mean income doesn’t support the mean home prices with property tax. As interest rates increase, the homeowners with adjustable and interest only mortgage payments won’t be able to afford the increased payments plus property tax. This will lead to defaults hence driving down the market.

Posted 6/20/05 12:09 PM
 

Redhead
You Live, You Learn

Member since 5/05

31871 total posts

Name:
Jennifer

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

Posted by danielleandscott

I have been told many different things by many different people...and I dont understand how anyone can forsee what will happen in the future.



true! That is why i wouldn't wait for anything to happen. Buy according to what you can afford and if it goes up..be thankful. If it goes a little down...it won't be enough for you to regret the decision imo.

Posted 6/20/05 12:13 PM
 

Sassyz75
Turning a new page

Member since 5/05

9731 total posts

Name:
Dina

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

Posted by Redhead

Posted by danielleandscott

I have been told many different things by many different people...and I dont understand how anyone can forsee what will happen in the future.



true! That is why i wouldn't wait for anything to happen. Buy according to what you can afford and if it goes up..be thankful. If it goes a little down...it won't be enough for you to regret the decision imo.



I agree.

I think that if you are looking to buy somewhere and you know it is a house that you will stay in for 10+ years (the amount of time a cycle would be) than it really doesn't matter- as long as you have a traditional fixed-rate mortgage....

This happened to my father- bought at height of market in 80s.. but he's been in the same house since- and now of course it's worth more $$$...

Posted 6/20/05 12:18 PM
 

~Colleen~
my loves...

Member since 5/05

9129 total posts

Name:
guess

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

Posted by shamrock12472

I do see a drop in the near future of about 18 months to 2 years. The reasoning for my impression a few things:

When the Fed Chairman uses the same exact verbiage for the housing market that he did in 1998/9 tech bubble for the real estate market today – it has to make you think.

Also, most mortgages taken out for 1st time home buyers or 1st mortgages in the last 12 months (over 60% of mortgages) in the high end markets like Long Island, NYC and parts of California are adjustable rate mortgages (not arms) and interest only mortgages. This leads one to conclude that the reason for these mortgages are affordability issues since they wouldn’t be able to afford a fixed mortgage payment. The traditional use of such mortgages is for property developers and real estate investors in the likes of Trump.

The mean income doesn’t support the mean home prices with property tax. As interest rates increase, the homeowners with adjustable and interest only mortgage payments won’t be able to afford the increased payments plus property tax. This will lead to defaults hence driving down the market.



Exactly what people were telling me. It was also suggested - b/c of the mortage issue (people over extending themselves) - that we visit our bank and inquire about foreclosures. But we have mixed feelings about foreclosures...

For us, and our price range, we haven't found a single home we would live in for the long haul. Everything is a "starter home" and the growth potential was minimal. We've put the hunt on hold and will check it out again at the end of the year.

Worst case scenario - housing market goes up.....but we'd have that much more $$$ saved, so it doesn't really affect us. Chat Icon We're not in a rush to just buy for the sake of buying. But that's just our opinion...

Message edited 6/20/2005 12:40:29 PM.

Posted 6/20/05 12:38 PM
 

MrsR
My love.

Member since 5/05

6247 total posts

Name:
Jennifer

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

If you can somehow afford a house - buy it now.

Dont stress too much over every penny - the rates are low - and if the prices fall...it doesn't matter - as long as you are not selling (and you have a fixed rate mortgage).

Over the long term the prices are ALWAYS going to go up. I have been told by a lot of experts that the hardest part of the market is getting in - but once you are in - you have a lot more options.

Posted 6/20/05 3:03 PM
 

-Lisa-
---------------

Member since 5/05

6530 total posts

Name:
Lisa

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

I don't know what's going to happen, but I can tell you values on LI are continually INCREASING at a steady rate. I see it EVERYDAY - we're appraising houses for much more than I would have given the same house a few months ago.

This has been going on for 5 years (not just the last year or two - houses went up 15-20% year since 2000), and every year we hear THIS is the top of the market. I agree, we have to hit the top eventually but I'm not sure this is it and I'm not sure the bubble will burst. In other parts of the country it makes sense, but the demand will always be there on LI...

There are a TON of houses for sale, but unless people are leaving LI in droves, the same people that are selling have to buy, and then there's all the first time home buyers, new transplants, etc.

If I were you (and I was you last year), I'd buy sooner rather than later.

Posted 6/20/05 4:10 PM
 

CookiePuss
Cake from Outer Space!

Member since 5/05

14021 total posts

Name:

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

Long Island Fast Facts

*Median Household Income:
Nassau County - $72,030
Suffolk County - $65,288
Queens County - $42,439
Brooklyn / Kings County - $32,135

*Population:
Nassau County - 1,340,000
Suffolk County - 1,440,000
Queens County - 2,224,000
Brooklyn / Kings County - 2,465,286

*Home Ownership Rate:
Nassau County - 80.3%
Suffolk County - 79.8%
Queens County - 42.8%
Brooklyn / Kings County - 27.1%

**2004 Average price of a home:
Nassau County - $541,443; +12.9% over 2003
Suffolk County - $402,373; +12.7% over 2003
Queens County - $376,670; +12.5% over 2003
Note: Housing Information for Brooklyn / Kings County not available.

Here are some housing statistics for 2004.

The best way to judge the housing market - look at how long houses are sitting for sale. The seller's market has dried up. As the above poster mentioned, lots of people are leaving Long Island because they can't afford to stay. They ran a bunch of specials regarding this fact especially how if effects the volunteer organizations - like Fire Dept.

If you can afford to buy something, I would. The interest rates are great and probably won't get better. But if you ask me about the housing market from an investment stand point - I think the prices are over inflated and can't support themselves.

Posted 6/20/05 5:06 PM
 

dm24angel
Happiness

Member since 5/05

34581 total posts

Name:
Donna

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

Interest rates are increasing, if they continue to, the price of houses has to go down to compete...Although I think it will take a good 3-5 years before you notice...

Posted 6/20/05 5:20 PM
 

heidla
Me and the guys

Member since 5/05

4024 total posts

Name:
Heidi

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

I think that it depends a lot on the areas. We bought 2 years ago in an up and coming neighboorhood in NYC. We went with a 7/1 adjustable rate mortgage because we only plan on living here for 5-7 years. In our neighboorhood the price is only going to continue to raise because we bought on the upward swing of the neighboorhood. It might slow, but we have already almost doubled our investment.


Posted 6/20/05 5:40 PM
 

Redhead
You Live, You Learn

Member since 5/05

31871 total posts

Name:
Jennifer

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

Posted by shamrock12472

Long Island Fast Facts

*Median Household Income:
Nassau County - $72,030
Suffolk County - $65,288
Queens County - $42,439
Brooklyn / Kings County - $32,135

.


I would have never believed that! Shocked how low that is...

BUT i wonder how that compares with the Incomes of those who have bought in the psat 2 years

Posted 6/20/05 5:44 PM
 

dm24angel
Happiness

Member since 5/05

34581 total posts

Name:
Donna

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

Posted by Redhead

Posted by shamrock12472

Long Island Fast Facts

*Median Household Income:
Nassau County - $72,030
Suffolk County - $65,288
Queens County - $42,439
Brooklyn / Kings County - $32,135

.


I would have never believed that! Shocked how low that is...

BUT i wonder how that compares with the Incomes of those who have bought in the psat 2 years



I saw those SAME statistics recently and was in AWE that it was indeed true! Chat Icon

Posted 6/20/05 5:54 PM
 

CookiePuss
Cake from Outer Space!

Member since 5/05

14021 total posts

Name:

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

Posted by Redhead

Posted by shamrock12472

Long Island Fast Facts

*Median Household Income:
Nassau County - $72,030
Suffolk County - $65,288
Queens County - $42,439
Brooklyn / Kings County - $32,135

.


I would have never believed that! Shocked how low that is...

BUT i wonder how that compares with the Incomes of those who have bought in the psat 2 years



Those are 2004 statistics.

Posted 6/20/05 6:04 PM
 

Redhead
You Live, You Learn

Member since 5/05

31871 total posts

Name:
Jennifer

Re: Predictions of House Prices for the future

Posted by shamrock12472

Posted by Redhead

Posted by shamrock12472

Long Island Fast Facts

*Median Household Income:
Nassau County - $72,030
Suffolk County - $65,288
Queens County - $42,439
Brooklyn / Kings County - $32,135

.


I would have never believed that! Shocked how low that is...

BUT i wonder how that compares with the Incomes of those who have bought in the psat 2 years



Those are 2004 statistics.



YES i understand that BUT what i would think would be interesting it to compare it to the incomes of the people that BOUGHT in the past 2 years...not just everyone in the area.

ETA...Am i misreading..that is the household incomes of those who BOUGHT in 2004?

Message edited 6/20/2005 6:11:12 PM.

Posted 6/20/05 6:10 PM
 
 

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