Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?

Posted by melbalalala

Posted by SweetestOfPeas

I agree with many points that you made....

but, if most of the US doesn't trust or like the President, that does have a negative impact on the way they spend their money. add to that the HUUUUGE trade deficit we have, the war and how much that has cost us and the price of oil being at a ridiculous $97 a barrel... not to mention the sub-prime disaster and housing market is not stabilizing - this is not at all a good situation!

Hmm... I can't STAND the current president... havent for 7 years.. but in that 7 years spent a ton of money (grad school, a house, etc.) Im not really sure I'm following you?

We have had a huge trade deficit for years.. the price of oil has alot to do with the weak dollar everyone has mentioned.

This is a personal thought, and has no factual evidence, but I do see the sub-prime disaster as a natural economic stabilizer. It's been said before on these boards, that people bought above their means using crazy types of mortgages. The market is self-correcting itself by forcing these people to foreclose on houses they cant afford, the banks have to sell these houses at a lower price than they were bought for, and in the long-run houses SHOULD go down to a more "normal" level... I think..

Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?

Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?

Posted by melbalalala

Posted by Ellebelle1

Ah, I loved informed people. There is so much negativity and hype all around. The problem with most Americans is that we spend too much. Things are getting more and more expensive, jobs are getting more competitive, it's harder to make a good income, house prices are inflated, the list goes on. I think it's just the course that this country is on.

informed Thanks!

Another nerdy economic thing Id like to share...

I read a paper recently, that said one of the reasons that housing prices were ridiculously high (outpacing inflation by ALOT) was because of our mother's generations "insistance" on being in the workforce. Sounds sexist and awful, right? I was immediately disgusted...

Well, think about it.. back in the day, almost every household was a "one income household". Then women entered the workforce, and alot of them stayed in the workforce even though they had kids... so, a household that used to make $40K was now making probably $75K... and that kept going up and up and up.

Now its the norm for women to go to college, earn equal to men and double a "household income". So while a mortgage may have been 20% of a households income.. it could now become 40% of a households income, so a house that was $120,000 could easily be sold for $200,000 (holding inflation constant) because a two income household could afford it.

So, now it is pretty much impossible for the majority of Americans to have one person work and afford a house, and a life.

Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but Ive been dying to share this with SOMEONE.

Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?

Posted by GoldenRod

So, it's all WOMEN's fault! Figures....

IMAGE IMAGE IMAGE





I do think we're in a recession, though. Not close to a depression (yet!)

http://www.infoworld.com/article/07/09/18/Greenspan-IT-another-recession_1.html

Greenspan, who has become a Federal Reserve chairman emeritus of sorts, might be more objective now that he is out of his federal role. He told the Wall Street Journal yesterday that he thought the probability of a recession is "slightly more than a third," up from merely a third, as he put it earlier this year.

Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?

Posted by SweetestOfPeas

Posted by headoverheels

i think it is here, and getting worse - and i think the job market is going to get hit very hard next year

the job market is horrible on LI and has been for a very long time!!

Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?

Posted by headoverheels

Posted by SweetestOfPeas

Posted by headoverheels

i think it is here, and getting worse - and i think the job market is going to get hit very hard next year

the job market is horrible on LI and has been for a very long time!!

i agree... but now i think we are going to see mass layoffs as well.

Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?

Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?

Posted by melbalalala

Posted by CoopersMom01

I agree... I think we're in the beginning stages of a recession. Thankfully there is a presidential election coming up and hopefully whoever is elected will be able to turn things around

First, let me say that I am an Economist (for the Federal govt in DC). The first thing you learn in Econ 101 is that a President has VERY little control over the economy.

There are VERY few things a President can do to get a country out of a recession. Every tax cut, minimum wage change, subisdy, grant, etc. while it may help some people, has a negative effect on others and in most instances cancels itself out. (The Fed is really the only organization that can have a direct impact on the economy)

I definitely don't think we are anywhere NEAR a depression. People were saying things like that when the tech bubble burst too and we survived that.

I personally like to think that we arent having a housing "crisis", but that the housing market is self-adjusting itself to get back to normal.

Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?

Posted by SweetestOfPeas

Posted by headoverheels

Posted by SweetestOfPeas

Posted by headoverheels

i think it is here, and getting worse - and i think the job market is going to get hit very hard next year

the job market is horrible on LI and has been for a very long time!!

i agree... but now i think we are going to see mass layoffs as well.

good GOD I hope not!!!!!!!

Message edited 11/8/2007 2:25:32 PM.

Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?

I agree that this is more of a "correction" then a recession and we are certainly no where near a depression

I am also hoping to use this to my benefit - I have been waiting for this to happen to buy a house