Housing Market...going up or down?

I've been asking everyone this...
Do you think the prices of the houses will continue to drop or will they start to rise again soon?

That was the topic of discussion at the family dinner last night. Some say..."wait..it's going to drop more"
then some say "now's a good time to buy...prices will go up in about 2 years"

What do you think?

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

I think they will continue to drop there is too much inventory available for them to go up anytime soon. My agent thinks it will level off in 2010 and prices will start going up in 2011.

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

I think it will continue to drop overall but, it will start to level in certain areas.

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

It really depends on where you are looking. Nassau County as a whole has really held strong despite the rest of the country tanking. Suffolk has taken a hit in value, and even Queens has taken a hit which surprises me.

On average in Nassau County, prices really haven't dropped in the past year any more than expected due to the season.

In fact Feb 08 sales numbers were overall HIGHER than Feb 07 sales. And you will always see higher sales in Spring/Summer than you do in the Winter so I am personally predicting a strong market this summer.

Just because there are tons of inventory doesn't guarantee that prices are going to go down so fast. Most of that inventory are homes listed by stubborn sellers that really have no desire to sell unless they get top dollar.

I can list my home for free and stick a for sale sign on my lawn in hopes that I will get double what I paid for it, and that adds one more house to the inventory. Doesn't mean that's going to happen.

Nassau Sales

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

Posted by ave1024

It really depends on where you are looking. Nassau County as a whole has really held strong despite the rest of the country tanking. Suffolk has taken a hit in value, and even Queens has taken a hit which surprises me.

On average in Nassau County, prices really haven't dropped in the past year any more than expected due to the season.

In fact Feb 08 sales numbers were overall HIGHER than Feb 07 sales. And you will always see higher sales in Spring/Summer than you do in the Winter so I am personally predicting a strong market this summer.

Just because there are tons of inventory doesn't guarantee that prices are going to go down so fast. Most of that inventory are homes listed by stubborn sellers that really have no desire to sell unless they get top dollar.

I can list my home for free and stick a for sale sign on my lawn in hopes that I will get double what I paid for it, and that adds one more house to the inventory. Doesn't mean that's going to happen.

Nassau Sales

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

Posted by Sandy55

Thank you!
thank goodness we're looking in Suffolk.

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

I say more, but I also think that it can vary depending on the neighborhood.

Just as an example, in the neighborhood we moved out of recently, a housse originally listed for $489K 16 months ago. It sold 2 months ago for $310K. I wish I were exaggerating, and the original list price was only approximated to be $20K over the market value at the original time of sale.

We were in Suffolk, south shore.

In our current neighborhood, a new build originally listed for $650K and sold for $590K. It sat for only 7 months (only.....yeesh).

Message edited 3/24/2008 12:43:15 PM.

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

I was watcing a financial program Friday, they were talking about the housing market and how people are waiting for the market to drop more. The person was saying that with intrest rates as low as they are right now, it doesn't really make sense to wait it out and hope the market drops more; she said a 10% price reduction would be negated if your interest rate went up by 0.5%

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

I think it's going to go down a bit lower but it really depends on which town.

Like the other poster said, when price go down, interests go up.

I think they will wil rise up in the next 2-3 years.

I would not bank on huge decreases for LI.

Message edited 3/24/2008 1:08:57 PM.

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

Well, just this weekend, I noticed at least 5 houses w/ "under contract" signs!! I guess that's a good sign because these houses have all been on the market for at least a couple of months!

I agree though that it depends on the area. The houses I saw are all in Suffolk on the north shore, but right on the Nassau border, if that makes a difference. I wonder how houses are selling in other areas?

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

I watch the real estate market a bit and economic trends in general, but I am purely an amateur, so take or leave what I have to say.

I think it will continue to drop for at least another year, possibly two. Then I would expect it to level off for at least two or three years. So I wouldn't see prices really increasing again for the next four or five years, possibly longer.

Of course, some parts of the country will take longer to rebound. I do not think NYC is one of them.

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

I think they will continue to drop.

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

I think it depends on the area. In our town, they never really changed as drastically at all throughout this entire downward spiral. We are lucky that way.

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

Posted by Pumpkin1

Posted by ave1024
Nassau Sales

I'm confused by this chart. What is the difference between "median" and "average" prices? I thought they were the same.

Message edited 3/24/2008 2:38:37 PM.

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

Posted by ave1024

Posted by Pumpkin1

Posted by ave1024
Nassau Sales

I'm confused by this chart. What is the difference between "median" and "average" prices? I thought they were the same.

The median price would be the "middle" actual sale out of a group of numbers where the average price is simply the average of all the numbers.

So if you have say five home sales of 250k, 300k, 350k, 400k, and 1.5M... the Median price is 350k (the middle price). In this scenario the average sale price would be higher than 350k because of that 1.5M sale that skews the results. This is probably why the average monthly sale is so much more than the median in Nassau County. Because Nassau has some REALLY EXPENSIVE neighborhoods with million dollar homes that can skew the average sales figure, but not the median.

I think the median price would be a more realistic way to look at the market over the average sales price. But either way, they went up and not down which is a good thing.

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

I think they are going to continue to drop a little and level off at some point. i dont think they are going to go back up and there wont be any dramatic changes in the real estate market for a few more years.

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

IMO- drop

this is only the begining of the ARMS reseting

it will get worse before it gets better

and I wouldn't buy a house b/c of the interest rate- you buy the house b/c it's priced rate- you can always re-fi- you can't change the price you paid for the house

Re: Housing Market...going up or down?

Where is the suffolk chart?

ETA:

Nevermind I found it. Maybe I'm missing something - but it looks like the avg. price in both counties droped roughly $100K. Nassau took a dive in Nov/Dec and did rally a bit more in Feb, but I think thats splitting hairs, no?

Suffolk Chart

Message edited 3/24/2008 8:51:41 PM.