Storm coming Friday and I am rambling (Yes, it is happening again.)

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Member since 5/06

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Name:
Kelly

Storm coming Friday and I am rambling (Yes, it is happening again.)

Don't kill the messenger. This one doesn't seem like a huge deal, but more annoying for the Friday morning commute.

As of right now it doesn't look like things will be canceled. So all you teachers begging for snow days, then b!tching you've had too many snow days and may actually have to work some extra days over one of your vacations, zip it! I don't make the weather. I can't help you. I love teachers and am very good friends with a few on LI. Plus, my brother is a teacher, so don't start throwing me under the school bus. Chat Icon

Anyway, the guys at the National Weather Service (The Gods of weather forecasting. Also known as NWS) are fully expecting a Winter Weather Advisory for Friday.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN KELLY?

They are advising you that winter weather is coming. BRILLIANT!

Wanna smack me now? Hey, my son is finally sleeping through the night after his surgery and we are optimistic this surgery may have corrected his sleep apnea. Yes, he was an infant when the sleep apnea appeared and he is now 3. Guess how many nights I have slept while listening to him stop breathing? I am a little punchy now.

Now back to the weather.......
From the NWS: (Which I help explain a bit down below, but please ask me any questions)

"SNOW WILL FALL MODERATELY FOR A TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH...THEN NEAR THE BENCHMARK. MID
AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH SNOW
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL QPF SEEMS TO
BE ON THE ORDER OF 2/10 TO A 1/3 OF AN INCH. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF
QPF...FEEL A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT A GOOD BET WITH A GENERAL 2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA."

Oh Kelly, you have lost me.

It's okay. You shouldn't know exactly what this means. This is why I am here. This is why I first went on the air, to help people understand the weather. (The crazies that called me at the station are the reason I got out of it, but I digress.)

Translation:
Benchmark: The 40/70 line I talked to you about the two storms ago.

If you missed that video of explanation: grab some coffee because here it is....

Link to my explanation of winter storms

Of course, this is just an example. This isn't saying that every storm that comes over the mountains truly sucks, or that nothing else can happen. But that 40/70 benchmark is ALWAYS looked at in winter storms.

BTW: This past storm (over yesterday and today) was in the right area for a big winter storm, but it was too warm.

Back to the NWS words (Called the 'area forecast discussion' (or AFD), you should totally look it up under text forecasts.) Lots of meteorological blah blah, but I am trying to help you understand all the blah blah.

QPF= amount of 'water' that falls. If it falls as snow, sometimes an inch of water (QPF) can equal around 10 inches of snow. Each storm carries its own QPF ratio, depending on how much moisture it has. (But most 1 inch QPF equals about 9-12 inches of snow)

TROUGH (aka 'trof' in some lazy AFDs) is a weak front. Meaning it brings some moisture with it.

Winter weather advisory: Typically means up to 6 inches. (But usually 2-5) If you go into a winter storm warning then more than 6 inches can occur.

Again, I just want you all to become more educated in the lingo of meteorologists so you stop b!tching them out. And if you look at a forecast 2 days in advance, keep looking at it! Sorry, but it is bound to be tweeked a bit. And keep track of the next storm coming Tuesday into Wednesday. I am not officially saying anything, other than keep an eye on it.

In conclusion: SNow will start falling mainly after most have gone to sleep Thursday night. You will wake up oblivious on Friday morning, then complain you didn't know you had to brush off your car and add more time to your commute. Then somehow curse every weather person you know.

After my ramblings, here are your maps:

External Image

This your QPF: (Melted snow+melted ice+rain)

Message edited 1/19/2011 10:08:25 PM.

Posted 1/19/11 9:29 PM