The official look at Earl and his impact on us (UPDATE Friday morning)

First of all, relax!!!!

Of course we are all keeping an eye on him, but he shouldn't be making a huge impact for the holiday weekend. (And by weekend I mean Sat-Mon) EXCEPT!!!!! He will be making a massive impact on the shoreline and make some rough surf.

I truly do not believe that swimming is a good idea in the ocean. Rip tides and rough surf will be around.

That being said:
Earl is expected Friday. He is expected (right now) to stay out to sea and bring us some rain and wind. The track is important.

You can all stay informed with a few forecast products from the National Hurricane Center. (sigh, they were my ultimate goal in my meteorological career) But I digress.....

This picture shows you were Earl is forecasted to be. The shaded area is a potential track. (You can see that the shaded area gets wider as each day goes out. That is the uncertainty of the track past day 3 of a forecast) This map shows you what is expected to be. H=hurricane of category 1 or 2. M=major hurricane of cat 3 or above.



This map shows you the possibility of tropical storm winds in a given area. As you see, Long Island is in the yellow, which is about a 30% chance LI will see sustained winds of 39 mph or greater. (But we are in yellow as I type this. This map will automatically update, so check out the colors when you keep checking back.)



This map shows the possibility of hurricane force winds in a given area. That is winds of over 74 mph.



All of the above pictures should update on their own throughout the next few days. (A few times per day) Keep an eye on them. Once we get to Wednesday, really keep an eye on it. We are still 4 days away right now. There is a lot of difference between a few hundred miles. And the center of this storm is the black dot on the first map. But we all know that hurricanes are slightly larger than a dot.

So just because the center may pass a few hundred miles to the East, doesn't mean we are all good and sunny. Hurricanes are beautiful and large. And remember, the East end of LI will see more wind than NYC. Things will get more accurate by Wed and especially Thursday.

If things do not update ontheir own, check out the maps on here:

National Hurricane Center

Now go out and stock up on water (to mix with your scotch), batteries (for your vibrator) and food (for your drunken munchies) and put on your big kid underwear. I will update as necessary.



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Tuesday update: He appears to have slowed down a bit and is expected later Friday.

Not much of an update at all, but I am finding certain discussions between meteorologists funny. Basically, the question is whether people will see rain or not. The real question is if NYC will see rain. Chances are that Eastern Suffolk will see it and could see a dreary day on Friday. But then people in the city may need sunglasses.

What I find funny is the latest status update from Craig Allen. (It's the public account of him, so I am not sharing anything secret.):

"Hey colleagues....I'm confused. All trop guidance is similar or even further east again. (ex: HWRF now 50+ east of prvs run) Only NOGAPS is the westernmost track. So why is op nam and gfs trying to flood us as if this was a noreaster? The western side usually dries up on a trip up the coastline. There's something very wrong here unless they are playing xtrop transition or cf/trof pulling it in over us......Answers?"



Translation: Why are many of the computer models making this hurricane out to be a soaker for NYC when typically the Western side of a hurricane like this has a sharp line of where the rain ends? (ie: Montauk gets rain all day, Islip has airport delays with rain on and off and NYC sees no rain at all.)

Ok, maybe you don't find this funny at all. But this is what makes these storms difficult. You have millions of people within 50 miles of each other and many are wondering what the big deal is while others on the East end see something completely different.
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UPDATE Wednesday AM:

Nothing has changed at all over the past few days. BUT now everyone is allowed to say what they think is going to happen. With such uncertainty of a track of a big storm, you need to discuss it and keep all options open. (This is what most people complain about: The media frenzy.) If it kept on a westerly track, it would've affected NYC and LI greatly.

Again, this track has been dead on so far since the track was first forecasted. Does this mean it could change? Absolutely. But hurricane watches and tropical storm watches are allowed to be posted about 24 hours before 'impact'. This is why NC now has their hurricane watch up. (That is the pink shading on the NC shore on the above first map)

For NYC and LI:
Since the storm is still 48 hours away from here, we have no watches posted. Personally, I think Suffolk may get a tropical storm watch posted tomorrow. (Or at least Eastern Suffolk.) Unless the track turns more westward, then NYC and Nassau probably won't get a watch posted.

The closer you are to Montauk, the better your chances of seeing wind and rain. If a tropical storm watch is posted for your area, it means that you may see tropical storm conditions. What does this mean? Some wind and rain. Wind must be sustained at over 39mph to be considered tropical storm status.

IF a tropical storm warning is posted for your area, it means the conditions are immenent. They WILL happen. But again, I think any watches or warnings will be Suffolk only.

If you don't live in Suffolk, why should you care? Hurricane track can change. Plus, all beaches will be hit hard with surf, erosion and rip tides. The Labor Day weekend may be nice, but swimming will be dangerous. Many people have already been swept out to sea. Just because the hurricane will pass by Saturday, the ocean will be rough for numerous days after.

The outer banks of NC will be hit hardest, Cape Cod is also possibly in big trouble. So draw a line between the two and see where you think the storm is going.

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UPDATE WED NIGHT:

The path has not changed at all. The weird thing that happened today is a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Suffolk, Nassau, Brooklyn and Queens.

I truly believe that the Watch was put up for Brooklyn and Queens because of pressure from other National Weather Service (NWS) offices. (Philly, which does Southern NJ forecasts and Boston, which does that coastal area.) Kind of hard to have watches and warnings from surrounding areas and not have one for an area in the middle. Does that make sense?

Look at that original map above with the colors on the coast.
If you want to look at the map bigger, click here:
Actually click on the map to make it bigger

You see how Cape Cod is under a hurricane watch? (I truly mean the coastline when I am discussing this.) And North Carolina is under a hurricane warning? Earl should still be close enough to kick up winds along the coastline of Southern NJ.

NWS has to put out watches and warnings while coordinating with other offices around them. So I truly believe that the NYC office may have been 'forced' into putting a watch up for the entire coastline. I hope I am explaining this right without confusing you all.

Also, the Watch HAS to be up for the coastline because of high tides and beach erosion. Those that live on the water will see stronger winds. Hello! They are FACING Earl. He will give a b!tch slap now and again.

I still stand by previous thoughts. I believe Montauk could see an inch of rain and winds, while Islip could see on and off stuff, and NYC may not see a damn thing. How is that possible?

Here is a picture (below) that shows what is going on. The storm at the point I am writing this (10pm Wed night) is about 550 away from NC. BUT, some 'bands' are already onshore. They are like little arms that spin away from the storm, like a pinwheel. Most ahead of a storm are just clouds, but some do have rain.

The center of Earl is expected to be about 300 miles away from Montauk on Friday afternoon/evening. (But if you hear them say he is taking a more westward track, it will be closer) Hurricane force winds (over 74 mph) extend 90 miles from the center. Tropical Storm winds (over 39mph) extend 200 miles from the center. So Montauk could be about 100 miles away from the strong winds. But with bands over 500 miles away from the center, they can be seen throughout our area. Bands are typically short in duration and have some clearing behind them. Chances are that NYC will see bands of clouds, Montauk will see bands with rain. Any band can have wind.

Does any of this make sense?





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UPDATE Thurs AM

My reason for the information is to keep you informed of what Earl is doing and you can better understand what is going on. This way you can B!tch the 'weather guy' out less.

Earl has become very powerful. Its track has not changed much, but all eyes are on the midwest. Why? because the front out there is what was supposed to kick Earl out to sea. Since Earl has gotten stronger, he is getting stronger than the front. This means the front is not affecting him as much.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN KELLY?!??!

Not much difference. However, shear is our friend. The more shear, the more this random front will 'tear apart' the hurricane. It is very difficult to tear apart such a strong hurricane. The front needs to keep moving closer to the east coast.

What do you need to do?

Go outside with a straw, face the west and suck hard through the straw.



Just kidding. Nothing we can do. If for some reason Earl hits the NC coast, then you know he got closer than was expected. (Meaning he got too strong for the front to push him. The front is what will save the East Coast. Thank the front.) If he gets closer there, he can get closer here.

I now believe he will be closer to Montauk than previously expected, which was 300 miles. And Tropical Storm winds extend 230 miles from the center.

Keep watching the path. Hurricanes move slow enough to give ample warning. I still think NYC wont see much, Nassau maybe a little and Suffolk will see winds and rain. If you live on the shoreline or near Montauk, take some extra precautions.

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UPDATE THURS NIGHT

Again, no real change from the original forecast. Earl is weakening on command. Suffolk looks to be getting more of the wind and possible heavy rain. Nassau and NYC some showers and wind. Some of the rain could begin around sunrise Friday morning. But these are the bands of rain I told you about. They are far from the storm, but stretch out hundreds of miles. They spin and then there is a break, then another band and a break.

The best chance at heaviest rain will be from about noon to sunset on Friday.

Seas will be very high and too dangerous to go out in. I truly can't tell you if the seas will be better (ie: rip tides) for Sunday and Monday.

If you are along the shore, just be careful of high seas and erosion.

Have fun everybody!

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UPDATE FRIDAY MORNING

Your straw sucking worked!!!!!!!

As expected for the past week, Earl is turning toward the northeast!! He did travel a bit further west than expected yesterday, so he will be only about 125-150 miles off of Montauk when he goes by. So, current forecast (and previous forecasts) have been dead on. Suffolk getting the best chance at heavy rain, Nassau getting some, NYC seeing some possibly.

A few bands of rain are only about 100 miles off the coast right now. So some places could start seeing sprinkles in a few hours. (Like, 10am) But those are the bands I told you about that are like little fingers of rain, with dry behind them. The main rain comes later in the afternoon and evening. Most everything in precipitation should be done by midnight. But winds will hang around tomorrow too.

Check out the radar:
This will keep you updated and show you how big it truly is. (It should refresh on its own, but you may need to hit refresh.)


Radar loop for our area, which will be best as it hits

This radar shows it much better as it gets closer to us (East Coast)

This should be my last update.

Message edited 9/3/2010 8:19:46 AM.

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

KELLY, that last paragraph

you're a feisty little sprout

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

Posted by Shorty

KELLY, that last paragraph

you're a feisty little sprout

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

I'm obsessed with weather.

This just made me Ahh, details. I love it.

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

can I change my username to i♥waterspout4?

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

type & hearts ; all together

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

Thank you.!! I hate how weathermen scare the sh!t out of you sometimes with dramatic predictions.

You've definietly set my mind at ease for the weekend. Thanks again!

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

That last paragraph almost made this preggo pee her pants from laughing so hard !!!

Thanks for the update waterspout !!

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

you are the best!

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

♥

Yay!! I did it!!

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

Posted by waterspout4


Now go out and stock up on water (to mix with your scotch), batteries (for your vibrator) and food (for your drunken munchies) and put on your big kid underwear. I will update as necessary.

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

Posted by waterspout4

Now go out and stock up on water (to mix with your scotch), batteries (for your vibrator) and food (for your drunken munchies) and put on your big kid underwear. I will update as necessary.

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

Thanks

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

LOVE it!!

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

I'll make sure to take the margarita maker out of the garage!

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

What about bread and milk?
Or is that only for snow storms?


(And PS- I Heart you for mentioning the batteries for my vibrator! )

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

Posted by MrsProfessor

Posted by waterspout4


Now go out and stock up on water (to mix with your scotch), batteries (for your vibrator) and food (for your drunken munchies) and put on your big kid underwear. I will update as necessary.

You have just shattered my image of you.

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

Posted by NervousNell

What about bread and milk?
Or is that only for snow storms?


(And PS- I Heart you for mentioning the batteries for my vibrator! )

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

Posted by CouponKT

type & hearts ; all together

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

&hearts

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us

type&hearts

Re: The official look at Earl and his impact on us