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Re: Housing prices
Posted by NervousNell
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Don’t see prices going back down anytime soon. People have been talking about a Long Island “bubble” for 10+ years now. Hasn’t happened. Id say anything west of say Smithtown/Commack area is likely not to drop.
Maybe the Far East of Suffolk might see a slight dip only because it ballooned out of proportion. But even that is stretching it.
And you can’t compare NJ to Long Island either. Two different markets.
I’m not comparing the two but eventually you will see the market being effected everywhere, even in precious LI. My point was it already started in NJ and it will follow in the rest of the tri state area. I live in an area where all the wealthy NY’ers moved to, so the market isn’t much different than NYC. Or I guess my friends in real estate don’t know what they are talking about.
Also just like people went out east to LI, a lot of people went down the shore as well. Same thing.
I'll believe it when I see it (in Long Island). Maybe there will be a dip off the 17% increase we saw in the last 8 months just because that spike was simply panic buying at it's finest.
But the bottom line is the upward trend on average for Long Island will continue to move upward. People have been complaining about housing bubbles for years. Do a search on this website, i can pull post after post of people claiming there is a bubble and housing will go down. Has it yet? Nope.
Even with WFH and the ability to work "anywhere", people have roots in Long Island. Family in Long Island. People enjoy the beaches, the water, the things to do.
People say for example "Oh i can get so much more house for my money in North Carolina" (for example). My response to that is always, "Well that means you also have to live in North Carolina". Different strokes for different folks.
The beaches in Long Island are garbage compared to the ones in Florida.
I never understood how people think Long Island has such great beaches when you see what a Florida beach looks like in comparison.
And here you can only use these "wonderful" beaches 2 months out of the year. Kind of a waste
Obviously people who have never been out of NY. Take ONE trip to the Caribbean or Bermuda and you will never say the beaches here are nice.
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Posted 12/14/20 10:27 AM  |
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tray831
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by LastLightGlow
On a separate note, I can’t help to think that if housing prices are so high on LI and so many WFH now, why not just leave LI altogether for cheaper housing?
Some are.
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| Posted 12/14/20 10:27 AM |
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Sash
Peace
Member since 6/08 10312 total posts
Name:
fka LIW Smara
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by valentinesbaby48
Posted by NervousNell
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Don’t see prices going back down anytime soon. People have been talking about a Long Island “bubble” for 10+ years now. Hasn’t happened. Id say anything west of say Smithtown/Commack area is likely not to drop.
Maybe the Far East of Suffolk might see a slight dip only because it ballooned out of proportion. But even that is stretching it.
And you can’t compare NJ to Long Island either. Two different markets.
I’m not comparing the two but eventually you will see the market being effected everywhere, even in precious LI. My point was it already started in NJ and it will follow in the rest of the tri state area. I live in an area where all the wealthy NY’ers moved to, so the market isn’t much different than NYC. Or I guess my friends in real estate don’t know what they are talking about.
Also just like people went out east to LI, a lot of people went down the shore as well. Same thing.
I'll believe it when I see it (in Long Island). Maybe there will be a dip off the 17% increase we saw in the last 8 months just because that spike was simply panic buying at it's finest.
But the bottom line is the upward trend on average for Long Island will continue to move upward. People have been complaining about housing bubbles for years. Do a search on this website, i can pull post after post of people claiming there is a bubble and housing will go down. Has it yet? Nope.
Even with WFH and the ability to work "anywhere", people have roots in Long Island. Family in Long Island. People enjoy the beaches, the water, the things to do.
People say for example "Oh i can get so much more house for my money in North Carolina" (for example). My response to that is always, "Well that means you also have to live in North Carolina". Different strokes for different folks.
The beaches in Long Island are garbage compared to the ones in Florida.
I never understood how people think Long Island has such great beaches when you see what a Florida beach looks like in comparison.
And here you can only use these "wonderful" beaches 2 months out of the year. Kind of a waste
Obviously people who have never been out of NY. Take ONE trip to the Caribbean or Bermuda and you will never say the beaches here are nice.
Born and raised in NYC, and you will never hear me use the beaches as a desirable reason to live here. 
Message edited 12/14/2020 11:01:38 AM.
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| Posted 12/14/20 10:49 AM |
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NervousNell
Just another chapter in life..
Member since 11/09 54921 total posts
Name:
..being a mommy and being a wife!
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by Sash
Posted by valentinesbaby48
Posted by NervousNell
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Don’t see prices going back down anytime soon. People have been talking about a Long Island “bubble” for 10+ years now. Hasn’t happened. Id say anything west of say Smithtown/Commack area is likely not to drop.
Maybe the Far East of Suffolk might see a slight dip only because it ballooned out of proportion. But even that is stretching it.
And you can’t compare NJ to Long Island either. Two different markets.
I’m not comparing the two but eventually you will see the market being effected everywhere, even in precious LI. My point was it already started in NJ and it will follow in the rest of the tri state area. I live in an area where all the wealthy NY’ers moved to, so the market isn’t much different than NYC. Or I guess my friends in real estate don’t know what they are talking about.
Also just like people went out east to LI, a lot of people went down the shore as well. Same thing.
I'll believe it when I see it (in Long Island). Maybe there will be a dip off the 17% increase we saw in the last 8 months just because that spike was simply panic buying at it's finest.
But the bottom line is the upward trend on average for Long Island will continue to move upward. People have been complaining about housing bubbles for years. Do a search on this website, i can pull post after post of people claiming there is a bubble and housing will go down. Has it yet? Nope.
Even with WFH and the ability to work "anywhere", people have roots in Long Island. Family in Long Island. People enjoy the beaches, the water, the things to do.
People say for example "Oh i can get so much more house for my money in North Carolina" (for example). My response to that is always, "Well that means you also have to live in North Carolina". Different strokes for different folks.
The beaches in Long Island are garbage compared to the ones in Florida.
I never understood how people think Long Island has such great beaches when you see what a Florida beach looks like in comparison.
And here you can only use these "wonderful" beaches 2 months out of the year. Kind of a waste
Obviously people who have never been out of NY. Take ONE trip to the Caribbean or Bermuda and you will never say the beaches here are nice.
Born and raised in NYC, and you will never hear me use the beaches as a desirable reason to live here.
The water being brown should be clue one that perhaps our beaches are not a hot selling point.
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| Posted 12/14/20 11:18 AM |
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ave1024
I Took The Wrong Road
Member since 12/07 6153 total posts
Name:
That Led To The Wrong Tendencies
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Don’t see prices going back down anytime soon. People have been talking about a Long Island “bubble” for 10+ years now. Hasn’t happened. Id say anything west of say Smithtown/Commack area is likely not to drop.
Maybe the Far East of Suffolk might see a slight dip only because it ballooned out of proportion. But even that is stretching it.
And you can’t compare NJ to Long Island either. Two different markets.
I’m not comparing the two but eventually you will see the market being effected everywhere, even in precious LI. My point was it already started in NJ and it will follow in the rest of the tri state area. I live in an area where all the wealthy NY’ers moved to, so the market isn’t much different than NYC. Or I guess my friends in real estate don’t know what they are talking about.
Also just like people went out east to LI, a lot of people went down the shore as well. Same thing.
I'll believe it when I see it (in Long Island). Maybe there will be a dip off the 17% increase we saw in the last 8 months just because that spike was simply panic buying at it's finest.
But the bottom line is the upward trend on average for Long Island will continue to move upward. People have been complaining about housing bubbles for years. Do a search on this website, i can pull post after post of people claiming there is a bubble and housing will go down. Has it yet? Nope.
Even with WFH and the ability to work "anywhere", people have roots in Long Island. Family in Long Island. People enjoy the beaches, the water, the things to do.
People say for example "Oh i can get so much more house for my money in North Carolina" (for example). My response to that is always, "Well that means you also have to live in North Carolina". Different strokes for different folks.
You’re delusional if you think the housing market on LI can never go down and you even said a 17% dip which is a decrease. I said flatten out and basically you are restating what I said with a percentage tied to it. I don’t have to do my research because it’s already been done and i have firsthand experience. I am also not sure why you keep comparing LI to other states. LI is one part of an entire state. It’s apples to oranges. It’s like me comparing Jersey shore or Central NJ to NY/FL/NC. It doesn’t make sense.
Delusional? That's the difference between me and you. I refer to factual data, not what I heard from my RE "friend".
And you're delusional if you think Long Island is going to drop like a rock like you are alluding to what is happening in NJ. Where is this magical inventory coming from that will drive prices down? Hey I hope it does, maybe I'll pick up another investment property. I don't think it's going to drop at all and I think you WILL see sustained increases over time.
The FACT is the Long Island market on average has not gone down for the past 8 years. The Case Shiller index shows Nassau/Suffolk rising at the same rate it did in 2019.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS35004Q
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| Posted 12/14/20 12:39 PM |
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Sash
Peace
Member since 6/08 10312 total posts
Name:
fka LIW Smara
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Don’t see prices going back down anytime soon. People have been talking about a Long Island “bubble” for 10+ years now. Hasn’t happened. Id say anything west of say Smithtown/Commack area is likely not to drop.
Maybe the Far East of Suffolk might see a slight dip only because it ballooned out of proportion. But even that is stretching it.
And you can’t compare NJ to Long Island either. Two different markets.
I’m not comparing the two but eventually you will see the market being effected everywhere, even in precious LI. My point was it already started in NJ and it will follow in the rest of the tri state area. I live in an area where all the wealthy NY’ers moved to, so the market isn’t much different than NYC. Or I guess my friends in real estate don’t know what they are talking about.
Also just like people went out east to LI, a lot of people went down the shore as well. Same thing.
I'll believe it when I see it (in Long Island). Maybe there will be a dip off the 17% increase we saw in the last 8 months just because that spike was simply panic buying at it's finest.
But the bottom line is the upward trend on average for Long Island will continue to move upward. People have been complaining about housing bubbles for years. Do a search on this website, i can pull post after post of people claiming there is a bubble and housing will go down. Has it yet? Nope.
Even with WFH and the ability to work "anywhere", people have roots in Long Island. Family in Long Island. People enjoy the beaches, the water, the things to do.
People say for example "Oh i can get so much more house for my money in North Carolina" (for example). My response to that is always, "Well that means you also have to live in North Carolina". Different strokes for different folks.
You’re delusional if you think the housing market on LI can never go down and you even said a 17% dip which is a decrease. I said flatten out and basically you are restating what I said with a percentage tied to it. I don’t have to do my research because it’s already been done and i have firsthand experience. I am also not sure why you keep comparing LI to other states. LI is one part of an entire state. It’s apples to oranges. It’s like me comparing Jersey shore or Central NJ to NY/FL/NC. It doesn’t make sense.
Delusional? That's the difference between me and you. I refer to factual data, not what I heard from my RE "friend".
And you're delusional if you think Long Island is going to drop like a rock like you are alluding to what is happening in NJ. Where is this magical inventory coming from that will drive prices down? Hey I hope it does, maybe I'll pick up another investment property. I don't think it's going to drop at all and I think you WILL see sustained increases over time.
The FACT is the Long Island market on average has not gone down for the past 8 years. The Case Shiller index shows Nassau/Suffolk rising at the same rate it did in 2019.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS35004Q
So you’re an expert but real estate agents who have been in the industry and bust their @ss for years don’t know? That’s not research, talking to knowledgeable people? What’s makes you so smart on this because you use Google? 8 years is not indefinitely. You are basically saying that LI can never go down in prices, which is the most ridiculous blanket statement to make. That was my point of saying you are delusional. And I never said prices will drop like a rocket, I said it will flatten out and to wait. There are actual bidding wars happening in NJ/CT/PA and rest of NY, it’s not just on LI. The prices in Nj have dropped, that’s actual facts and research from looking at the market for 8 months. I never said they would drop like crazy on LI, i said it will flatten out and prices will go down. I proceeded to say that they already started in NJ. So even with bidding wars going on there are some houses that are dropping because people want to get their houses sold ASAP. It will level out. But then again you also said people flock and stay in LI because of the beautiful beaches. So how much do you really know.
Stop Man-splaining and learn how to read.
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| Posted 12/14/20 12:56 PM |
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MrsWoods
LIF Adult
Member since 4/12 1461 total posts
Name:
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Housing prices
Tell them not to move to NY. I would give anything to get out of Long Island. I think house prices are ridiculous for what you get. I live in a smaller home but in a really good neighborhood and i can sell it for over 600k just because of the fantastic school district and it makes me laugh that people actually spend that and pay so much taxes for little property. Only reason we are here is because of my husbands job but if i had a choice id take my money elsewhere.
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| Posted 12/14/20 1:10 PM |
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ave1024
I Took The Wrong Road
Member since 12/07 6153 total posts
Name:
That Led To The Wrong Tendencies
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by Sash
So you’re an expert but real estate agents who have been in the industry and bust their @ss for years don’t know? That’s not research, talking to knowledgeable people? What’s makes you so smart on this because you use Google?
You know what makes me so knowledgeable? Well for starters I have bought and sold more times than I can count on both of my hands. If you think somebody that graduates a 75 hour online course makes them an "expert", well then You know how many uneducated and flat out dumb "realtors" i have come across and personally dealt with in the last 20 years? Granted I am sure there are plenty of good ones, but the last time I checked having a RE license isn't a prerequisite for having knowledge of the RE market. If I had a dollar for every time a RE told me "You have to buy now because interest rates are going up!".
Second, you immediately jumped in this thread and said there were drops of 50-80k happening in NJ. That's not going to happen here, and not going to happen to the OP who is looking for a 500k house. You really think a house that is priced at 500k now is going to drop 80k? Seriously. Oh I forgot, you live "where all the NYC wealthy moved to".  What's 80k to somebody with millions.
Finally you can joke about it all you want, the beaches are one of the things that makes Long Island desirable. Why do you think there is a massive exodus every summer to go out east? Try asking somebody in Charlotte, Phoenix, or Austin if they wouldn't mind having 10-15 minute access to a real ocean beach (even as "brown" as Long Island's). Not everybody who enjoys "the beach" is actually sitting on the sand. Long Island is a hot market because of the proximity to NYC along with the various amenities and things to do. The beaches and water activities are one of the many things which include (but limited to) the eating, the schools, the healthcare, the wineries, etc. Like I said, different strokes for different folks. Nice try at a jab though.
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| Posted 12/14/20 1:29 PM |
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Sash
Peace
Member since 6/08 10312 total posts
Name:
fka LIW Smara
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
So you’re an expert but real estate agents who have been in the industry and bust their @ss for years don’t know? That’s not research, talking to knowledgeable people? What’s makes you so smart on this because you use Google?
You know what makes me so knowledgeable? Well for starters I have bought and sold more times than I can count on both of my hands. If you think somebody that graduates a 75 hour online course makes them an "expert", well then You know how many uneducated and flat out dumb "realtors" i have come across and personally dealt with in the last 20 years? Granted I am sure there are plenty of good ones, but the last time I checked having a RE license isn't a prerequisite for having knowledge of the RE market. If I had a dollar for every time a RE told me "You have to buy now because interest rates are going up!".
Second, you immediately jumped in this thread and said there were drops of 50-80k happening in NJ. That's not going to happen here, and not going to happen to the OP who is looking for a 500k house. You really think a house that is priced at 500k now is going to drop 80k? Seriously. Oh I forgot, you live "where all the NYC wealthy moved to". What's 80k to somebody with millions.
Finally you can joke about it all you want, the beaches are one of the things that makes Long Island desirable. Why do you think there is a massive exodus every summer to go out east? Try asking somebody in Charlotte, Phoenix, or Austin if they wouldn't mind having 10-15 minute access to a real ocean beach (even as "brown" as Long Island's). Not everybody who enjoys "the beach" is actually sitting on the sand. Long Island is a hot market because of the proximity to NYC along with the various amenities and things to do. The beaches and water activities are one of the many things which include (but limited to) the eating, the schools, the healthcare, the wineries, etc. Like I said, different strokes for different folks. Nice try at a jab though.
People who work buying and selling houses shouldn’t be considered knowledgeable. However since you done it, it’s makes you smarter than everyone else. The hypocrisy in your opening statement is beyond stupid. You sound obnoxious and pretentious.
Go back and read my post, I said I already starting seeing houses drop in Nj. Which is 100% true. I didn’t jump on saying when or what it will look like on LI. Umm northern Nj is ALSO a hot market because it’s close to NYC as well. It’s actually way closer then LI and not as congested as the city. So maybe you should do research on other places before you speak. Again for someone who tries to act so smug and smart, you certainly don’t know how to read. It seems like you only give facts and knowledge based on your bubble and circle, your experience. Try stepping out of it and listening.
I’m not trying to say NJ is better than NY, but it’s clear you know nothing about the former.
Message edited 12/14/2020 1:43:13 PM.
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| Posted 12/14/20 1:42 PM |
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Don’t see prices going back down anytime soon. People have been talking about a Long Island “bubble” for 10+ years now. Hasn’t happened. Id say anything west of say Smithtown/Commack area is likely not to drop.
Maybe the Far East of Suffolk might see a slight dip only because it ballooned out of proportion. But even that is stretching it.
And you can’t compare NJ to Long Island either. Two different markets.
I’m not comparing the two but eventually you will see the market being effected everywhere, even in precious LI. My point was it already started in NJ and it will follow in the rest of the tri state area. I live in an area where all the wealthy NY’ers moved to, so the market isn’t much different than NYC. Or I guess my friends in real estate don’t know what they are talking about.
Also just like people went out east to LI, a lot of people went down the shore as well. Same thing.
I'll believe it when I see it (in Long Island). Maybe there will be a dip off the 17% increase we saw in the last 8 months just because that spike was simply panic buying at it's finest.
But the bottom line is the upward trend on average for Long Island will continue to move upward. People have been complaining about housing bubbles for years. Do a search on this website, i can pull post after post of people claiming there is a bubble and housing will go down. Has it yet? Nope.
What about the housing bubble of 2005/2006? This affected many of my friends and family very badly. My Grandmother’s house depreciated about 75k in those years. Prices downtrended for a good 6 years before they stabilized and creeped up again. I purchased my first home after the bubble burst and got a great deal. A lot of people lost a lot. Who knows for sure if it’s to happen again currently but I wouldn’t take the chance right now if I could wait.
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| Posted 12/14/20 1:48 PM |
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ave1024
I Took The Wrong Road
Member since 12/07 6153 total posts
Name:
That Led To The Wrong Tendencies
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
So you’re an expert but real estate agents who have been in the industry and bust their @ss for years don’t know? That’s not research, talking to knowledgeable people? What’s makes you so smart on this because you use Google?
You know what makes me so knowledgeable? Well for starters I have bought and sold more times than I can count on both of my hands. If you think somebody that graduates a 75 hour online course makes them an "expert", well then You know how many uneducated and flat out dumb "realtors" i have come across and personally dealt with in the last 20 years? Granted I am sure there are plenty of good ones, but the last time I checked having a RE license isn't a prerequisite for having knowledge of the RE market. If I had a dollar for every time a RE told me "You have to buy now because interest rates are going up!".
Second, you immediately jumped in this thread and said there were drops of 50-80k happening in NJ. That's not going to happen here, and not going to happen to the OP who is looking for a 500k house. You really think a house that is priced at 500k now is going to drop 80k? Seriously. Oh I forgot, you live "where all the NYC wealthy moved to". What's 80k to somebody with millions.
Finally you can joke about it all you want, the beaches are one of the things that makes Long Island desirable. Why do you think there is a massive exodus every summer to go out east? Try asking somebody in Charlotte, Phoenix, or Austin if they wouldn't mind having 10-15 minute access to a real ocean beach (even as "brown" as Long Island's). Not everybody who enjoys "the beach" is actually sitting on the sand. Long Island is a hot market because of the proximity to NYC along with the various amenities and things to do. The beaches and water activities are one of the many things which include (but limited to) the eating, the schools, the healthcare, the wineries, etc. Like I said, different strokes for different folks. Nice try at a jab though.
People who work buying and selling houses shouldn’t be considered knowledgeable. However since you done it, it’s makes you smarter than everyone else. The hypocrisy in your opening statement is beyond stupid. You sound obnoxious and pretentious.
Go back and read my post, I said I already starting seeing houses drop in Nj. Which is 100% true. I didn’t jump on saying when or what it will look like on LI. Umm northern Nj is ALSO a hot market because it’s close to NYC as well. It’s actually way closer then LI and not as congested as the city. So maybe you should do research on other places before you speak. Again for someone who tries to act so smug and smart, you certainly don’t know how to read. It seems like you only give facts and knowledge based on your bubble and circle, your experience. Try stepping out of it and listening.
I’m not trying to say NJ is better than NY, but it’s clear you know nothing about the former.
I never said Northern NJ wasn't a hot market. I think it's you who can't read. Long Island isn't the only "hot market" in the Tri-State area. In many aspects parts of Westchester are even hotter than Long Island supposedly.
I never said anything about other markets, I merely spoke about Long Island and I said you can't post prices coming down in NJ as a sign for things to happen in Long Island. I don't speak of other markets I don't have first hand knowledge on. Perhaps you should do the same. And pretentious? Coming from the person bragging that they "live where all the NYC wealthy live?" Congrats to you and again, nice try at another jab.
And the fact that you said "prices have dropped since March", that's a little bizarre because March, April and even parts of May saw some of the lowest buyer turnouts ever due to the stay at home order. That pent up demand has further fueled the numbers we are seeing now.
Speaking of Northern NJ, care to post what areas are seeing an overall drop in housing prices? Why not post sales, comps, data to back this up? Any seller can list their house for way over even this crazy market just to have them lower their price when they eventually come to reality. That doesn't mean prices are dropping. The overall trend should be "up" if it's considered a good market.
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| Posted 12/14/20 1:59 PM |
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by LastLightGlow
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Don’t see prices going back down anytime soon. People have been talking about a Long Island “bubble” for 10+ years now. Hasn’t happened. Id say anything west of say Smithtown/Commack area is likely not to drop.
Maybe the Far East of Suffolk might see a slight dip only because it ballooned out of proportion. But even that is stretching it.
And you can’t compare NJ to Long Island either. Two different markets.
I’m not comparing the two but eventually you will see the market being effected everywhere, even in precious LI. My point was it already started in NJ and it will follow in the rest of the tri state area. I live in an area where all the wealthy NY’ers moved to, so the market isn’t much different than NYC. Or I guess my friends in real estate don’t know what they are talking about.
Also just like people went out east to LI, a lot of people went down the shore as well. Same thing.
I'll believe it when I see it (in Long Island). Maybe there will be a dip off the 17% increase we saw in the last 8 months just because that spike was simply panic buying at it's finest.
But the bottom line is the upward trend on average for Long Island will continue to move upward. People have been complaining about housing bubbles for years. Do a search on this website, i can pull post after post of people claiming there is a bubble and housing will go down. Has it yet? Nope.
What about the housing bubble of 2005/2006? This affected many of my friends and family very badly. My Grandmother’s house depreciated about 75k in those years. Prices downtrended for a good 6 years before they stabilized and creeped up again. I purchased my first home after the bubble burst and got a great deal. A lot of people lost a lot. Who knows for sure if it’s to happen again currently but I wouldn’t take the chance right now if I could wait.
My house can sell at almost $300,000 more than I bought it and it is insane as there is nothing but living in NY that makes it cost that much.
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| Posted 12/14/20 2:09 PM |
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
So you’re an expert but real estate agents who have been in the industry and bust their @ss for years don’t know? That’s not research, talking to knowledgeable people? What’s makes you so smart on this because you use Google?
You know what makes me so knowledgeable? Well for starters I have bought and sold more times than I can count on both of my hands. If you think somebody that graduates a 75 hour online course makes them an "expert", well then You know how many uneducated and flat out dumb "realtors" i have come across and personally dealt with in the last 20 years? Granted I am sure there are plenty of good ones, but the last time I checked having a RE license isn't a prerequisite for having knowledge of the RE market. If I had a dollar for every time a RE told me "You have to buy now because interest rates are going up!".
Second, you immediately jumped in this thread and said there were drops of 50-80k happening in NJ. That's not going to happen here, and not going to happen to the OP who is looking for a 500k house. You really think a house that is priced at 500k now is going to drop 80k? Seriously. Oh I forgot, you live "where all the NYC wealthy moved to". What's 80k to somebody with millions.
Finally you can joke about it all you want, the beaches are one of the things that makes Long Island desirable. Why do you think there is a massive exodus every summer to go out east? Try asking somebody in Charlotte, Phoenix, or Austin if they wouldn't mind having 10-15 minute access to a real ocean beach (even as "brown" as Long Island's). Not everybody who enjoys "the beach" is actually sitting on the sand. Long Island is a hot market because of the proximity to NYC along with the various amenities and things to do. The beaches and water activities are one of the many things which include (but limited to) the eating, the schools, the healthcare, the wineries, etc. Like I said, different strokes for different folks. Nice try at a jab though.
"Finally you can joke about it all you want, the beaches are one of the things that makes Long Island desirable. Why do you think there is a massive exodus every summer to go out east? Try asking somebody in Charlotte, Phoenix, or Austin if they wouldn't mind having 10-15 minute access to a real ocean beach (even as "brown" as Long Island's). Not everybody who enjoys "the beach" is actually sitting on the sand. Long Island is a hot market because of the proximity to NYC along with the various amenities and things to do. The beaches and water activities are one of the many things which include (but limited to) the eating, the schools, the healthcare, the wineries, etc. Like I said, different strokes for different folks. Nice try at a jab though. "
I feel bad for these people that would have enough money to come to LI but not other places that have amazing water. You can stay on the west coast of FL on the gulf and still have nicer beaches.
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| Posted 12/14/20 2:10 PM |
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ave1024
I Took The Wrong Road
Member since 12/07 6153 total posts
Name:
That Led To The Wrong Tendencies
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by LastLightGlow
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Don’t see prices going back down anytime soon. People have been talking about a Long Island “bubble” for 10+ years now. Hasn’t happened. Id say anything west of say Smithtown/Commack area is likely not to drop.
Maybe the Far East of Suffolk might see a slight dip only because it ballooned out of proportion. But even that is stretching it.
And you can’t compare NJ to Long Island either. Two different markets.
I’m not comparing the two but eventually you will see the market being effected everywhere, even in precious LI. My point was it already started in NJ and it will follow in the rest of the tri state area. I live in an area where all the wealthy NY’ers moved to, so the market isn’t much different than NYC. Or I guess my friends in real estate don’t know what they are talking about.
Also just like people went out east to LI, a lot of people went down the shore as well. Same thing.
I'll believe it when I see it (in Long Island). Maybe there will be a dip off the 17% increase we saw in the last 8 months just because that spike was simply panic buying at it's finest.
But the bottom line is the upward trend on average for Long Island will continue to move upward. People have been complaining about housing bubbles for years. Do a search on this website, i can pull post after post of people claiming there is a bubble and housing will go down. Has it yet? Nope.
What about the housing bubble of 2005/2006? This affected many of my friends and family very badly. My Grandmother’s house depreciated about 75k in those years. Prices downtrended for a good 6 years before they stabilized and creeped up again. I purchased my first home after the bubble burst and got a great deal. A lot of people lost a lot. Who knows for sure if it’s to happen again currently but I wouldn’t take the chance right now if I could wait.
The bubble of 2005 was a national bubble and was an overall financial correction in not just the housing market but other financial markets as well. They say 2008 was one of the worst financial recessions we have ever seen. When that happens you simply have to ride it out.
In many ways Long Island fared very well vs. how other markets did during that bubble. There are probably threads on here that talk about that bubble too. One of the houses I bought in 2010 I got a great deal on, but looking back it really wasn't far off it's 2005/2006 price. Maybe the neighborhood I bought in was more desirable and didn't drop as much? Who knows.
Look at what happened in Florida in 2007/2008. All the crystal blue beaches in the world didn't help them. Some of them lost more than half their equity. I see it in some of the properties I have bought in FL looking at the price history.
People didn't lose half their equity in Long Island. I had opportunity to buy in Florida in 2013 and I didn't do it and I still kick myself to this day for not acting on it.
I am sure most would love to see 2005 pre-bubble prices right now.
Case Shiller in Miami (look they lost half)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MIXRNSA
I already posted Case Shiller for Long Island. Lost 20% give or take.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS35004Q
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| Posted 12/14/20 2:10 PM |
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ave1024
I Took The Wrong Road
Member since 12/07 6153 total posts
Name:
That Led To The Wrong Tendencies
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by valentinesbaby48
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
So you’re an expert but real estate agents who have been in the industry and bust their @ss for years don’t know? That’s not research, talking to knowledgeable people? What’s makes you so smart on this because you use Google?
You know what makes me so knowledgeable? Well for starters I have bought and sold more times than I can count on both of my hands. If you think somebody that graduates a 75 hour online course makes them an "expert", well then You know how many uneducated and flat out dumb "realtors" i have come across and personally dealt with in the last 20 years? Granted I am sure there are plenty of good ones, but the last time I checked having a RE license isn't a prerequisite for having knowledge of the RE market. If I had a dollar for every time a RE told me "You have to buy now because interest rates are going up!".
Second, you immediately jumped in this thread and said there were drops of 50-80k happening in NJ. That's not going to happen here, and not going to happen to the OP who is looking for a 500k house. You really think a house that is priced at 500k now is going to drop 80k? Seriously. Oh I forgot, you live "where all the NYC wealthy moved to". What's 80k to somebody with millions.
Finally you can joke about it all you want, the beaches are one of the things that makes Long Island desirable. Why do you think there is a massive exodus every summer to go out east? Try asking somebody in Charlotte, Phoenix, or Austin if they wouldn't mind having 10-15 minute access to a real ocean beach (even as "brown" as Long Island's). Not everybody who enjoys "the beach" is actually sitting on the sand. Long Island is a hot market because of the proximity to NYC along with the various amenities and things to do. The beaches and water activities are one of the many things which include (but limited to) the eating, the schools, the healthcare, the wineries, etc. Like I said, different strokes for different folks. Nice try at a jab though.
"Finally you can joke about it all you want, the beaches are one of the things that makes Long Island desirable. Why do you think there is a massive exodus every summer to go out east? Try asking somebody in Charlotte, Phoenix, or Austin if they wouldn't mind having 10-15 minute access to a real ocean beach (even as "brown" as Long Island's). Not everybody who enjoys "the beach" is actually sitting on the sand. Long Island is a hot market because of the proximity to NYC along with the various amenities and things to do. The beaches and water activities are one of the many things which include (but limited to) the eating, the schools, the healthcare, the wineries, etc. Like I said, different strokes for different folks. Nice try at a jab though. "
I feel bad for these people that would have enough money to come to LI but not other places that have amazing water. You can stay on the west coast of FL on the gulf and still have nicer beaches.
I have property in Florida. I know. But NYC based employment (like it is for many people) keeps me here for now. And out of the entire tri-state area, Long Island is the lesser of all the evils. ETA: At least for me (before everybody gets their panties in a bunch)
The gulf side of Florida has the best beaches in the country (minus the occasional red tide).
Message edited 12/14/2020 2:15:34 PM.
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| Posted 12/14/20 2:13 PM |
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Sash
Peace
Member since 6/08 10312 total posts
Name:
fka LIW Smara
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
So you’re an expert but real estate agents who have been in the industry and bust their @ss for years don’t know? That’s not research, talking to knowledgeable people? What’s makes you so smart on this because you use Google?
You know what makes me so knowledgeable? Well for starters I have bought and sold more times than I can count on both of my hands. If you think somebody that graduates a 75 hour online course makes them an "expert", well then You know how many uneducated and flat out dumb "realtors" i have come across and personally dealt with in the last 20 years? Granted I am sure there are plenty of good ones, but the last time I checked having a RE license isn't a prerequisite for having knowledge of the RE market. If I had a dollar for every time a RE told me "You have to buy now because interest rates are going up!".
Second, you immediately jumped in this thread and said there were drops of 50-80k happening in NJ. That's not going to happen here, and not going to happen to the OP who is looking for a 500k house. You really think a house that is priced at 500k now is going to drop 80k? Seriously. Oh I forgot, you live "where all the NYC wealthy moved to". What's 80k to somebody with millions.
Finally you can joke about it all you want, the beaches are one of the things that makes Long Island desirable. Why do you think there is a massive exodus every summer to go out east? Try asking somebody in Charlotte, Phoenix, or Austin if they wouldn't mind having 10-15 minute access to a real ocean beach (even as "brown" as Long Island's). Not everybody who enjoys "the beach" is actually sitting on the sand. Long Island is a hot market because of the proximity to NYC along with the various amenities and things to do. The beaches and water activities are one of the many things which include (but limited to) the eating, the schools, the healthcare, the wineries, etc. Like I said, different strokes for different folks. Nice try at a jab though.
People who work buying and selling houses shouldn’t be considered knowledgeable. However since you done it, it’s makes you smarter than everyone else. The hypocrisy in your opening statement is beyond stupid. You sound obnoxious and pretentious.
Go back and read my post, I said I already starting seeing houses drop in Nj. Which is 100% true. I didn’t jump on saying when or what it will look like on LI. Umm northern Nj is ALSO a hot market because it’s close to NYC as well. It’s actually way closer then LI and not as congested as the city. So maybe you should do research on other places before you speak. Again for someone who tries to act so smug and smart, you certainly don’t know how to read. It seems like you only give facts and knowledge based on your bubble and circle, your experience. Try stepping out of it and listening.
I’m not trying to say NJ is better than NY, but it’s clear you know nothing about the former.
I never said Northern NJ wasn't a hot market. I think it's you who can't read. Long Island isn't the only "hot market" in the Tri-State area. In many aspects parts of Westchester are even hotter than Long Island supposedly.
I never said anything about other markets, I merely spoke about Long Island and I said you can't post prices coming down in NJ as a sign for things to happen in Long Island. I don't speak of other markets I don't have first hand knowledge on. Perhaps you should do the same. And pretentious? Coming from the person bragging that they "live where all the NYC wealthy live?" Congrats to you and again, nice try at another jab.
And the fact that you said "prices have dropped since March", that's a little bizarre because March, April and even parts of May saw some of the lowest buyer turnouts ever due to the stay at home order. That pent up demand has further fueled the numbers we are seeing now.
Speaking of Northern NJ, care to post what areas are seeing an overall drop in housing prices? Why not post sales, comps, data to back this up? Any seller can list their house for way over even this crazy market just to have them lower their price when they eventually come to reality. That doesn't mean prices are dropping. The overall trend should be "up" if it's considered a good market.
You’re so smart at research and the expert, find it yourself. I don’t have to prove myself to you and I’m not your assistant.
Message edited 12/14/2020 2:25:12 PM.
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| Posted 12/14/20 2:24 PM |
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Pomegranate5
LIF Adult
Member since 2/11 4798 total posts
Name:
Pomegranate5
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
So you’re an expert but real estate agents who have been in the industry and bust their @ss for years don’t know? That’s not research, talking to knowledgeable people? What’s makes you so smart on this because you use Google?
You know what makes me so knowledgeable? Well for starters I have bought and sold more times than I can count on both of my hands. If you think somebody that graduates a 75 hour online course makes them an "expert", well then You know how many uneducated and flat out dumb "realtors" i have come across and personally dealt with in the last 20 years? Granted I am sure there are plenty of good ones, but the last time I checked having a RE license isn't a prerequisite for having knowledge of the RE market. If I had a dollar for every time a RE told me "You have to buy now because interest rates are going up!".
Second, you immediately jumped in this thread and said there were drops of 50-80k happening in NJ. That's not going to happen here, and not going to happen to the OP who is looking for a 500k house. You really think a house that is priced at 500k now is going to drop 80k? Seriously. Oh I forgot, you live "where all the NYC wealthy moved to". What's 80k to somebody with millions.
Finally you can joke about it all you want, the beaches are one of the things that makes Long Island desirable. Why do you think there is a massive exodus every summer to go out east? Try asking somebody in Charlotte, Phoenix, or Austin if they wouldn't mind having 10-15 minute access to a real ocean beach (even as "brown" as Long Island's). Not everybody who enjoys "the beach" is actually sitting on the sand. Long Island is a hot market because of the proximity to NYC along with the various amenities and things to do. The beaches and water activities are one of the many things which include (but limited to) the eating, the schools, the healthcare, the wineries, etc. Like I said, different strokes for different folks. Nice try at a jab though.
WOW! Two whole hands worth of buying and selling??? That's amazing.
Anyway, of course the LI market is not going to sustain this. When you have houses on the market and a 20 person bidding war within two days, many of the people having not had the chance to step foot in the house, this is a red flag. People are panic buying.
Residential vacancy is through the roof in NYC, and unless you're saying that we're just going to board up at LEAST 20% of the apartment buildings in the city forever, you must realize that there will be a self correction at some point. There are always self corrections in situations like this. How bad it will be for LI is yet to be seen. But to say that values will trend up like this forever is ridiculous.
But then again you do have those 10+ deals under your belt.
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| Posted 12/14/20 2:30 PM |
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ave1024
I Took The Wrong Road
Member since 12/07 6153 total posts
Name:
That Led To The Wrong Tendencies
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by Pomegranate5
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
So you’re an expert but real estate agents who have been in the industry and bust their @ss for years don’t know? That’s not research, talking to knowledgeable people? What’s makes you so smart on this because you use Google?
You know what makes me so knowledgeable? Well for starters I have bought and sold more times than I can count on both of my hands. If you think somebody that graduates a 75 hour online course makes them an "expert", well then You know how many uneducated and flat out dumb "realtors" i have come across and personally dealt with in the last 20 years? Granted I am sure there are plenty of good ones, but the last time I checked having a RE license isn't a prerequisite for having knowledge of the RE market. If I had a dollar for every time a RE told me "You have to buy now because interest rates are going up!".
Second, you immediately jumped in this thread and said there were drops of 50-80k happening in NJ. That's not going to happen here, and not going to happen to the OP who is looking for a 500k house. You really think a house that is priced at 500k now is going to drop 80k? Seriously. Oh I forgot, you live "where all the NYC wealthy moved to". What's 80k to somebody with millions.
Finally you can joke about it all you want, the beaches are one of the things that makes Long Island desirable. Why do you think there is a massive exodus every summer to go out east? Try asking somebody in Charlotte, Phoenix, or Austin if they wouldn't mind having 10-15 minute access to a real ocean beach (even as "brown" as Long Island's). Not everybody who enjoys "the beach" is actually sitting on the sand. Long Island is a hot market because of the proximity to NYC along with the various amenities and things to do. The beaches and water activities are one of the many things which include (but limited to) the eating, the schools, the healthcare, the wineries, etc. Like I said, different strokes for different folks. Nice try at a jab though.
WOW! Two whole hands worth of buying and selling??? That's amazing.
Anyway, of course the LI market is not going to sustain this. When you have houses on the market and a 20 person bidding war within two days, many of the people having not had the chance to step foot in the house, this is a red flag. People are panic buying.
Residential vacancy is through the roof in NYC, and unless you're saying that we're just going to board up at LEAST 20% of the apartment buildings in the city forever, you must realize that there will be a self correction at some point. There are always self corrections in situations like this. How bad it will be for LI is yet to be seen. But to say that values will trend up like this forever is ridiculous.
But then again you do have those 10+ deals under your belt.
Since when did I speak of the NYC market? They got hammered. But if there is no available inventory to choose from, do you think it's going to make a difference? Lines of 20+ for open houses will dwindle down to 5-10 people. And the only reason why we even have lines is due to social distancing which will hopefully be a thing of the past by later next year.
While there may be 20% vacancy in NYC, there isn't 20% surplus of available housing in Long Island. With that logic, why didn't the LI market dip in 2016-2019 when NYC real estate was at it's peak?
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| Posted 12/14/20 2:40 PM |
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ave1024
I Took The Wrong Road
Member since 12/07 6153 total posts
Name:
That Led To The Wrong Tendencies
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
So you’re an expert but real estate agents who have been in the industry and bust their @ss for years don’t know? That’s not research, talking to knowledgeable people? What’s makes you so smart on this because you use Google?
You know what makes me so knowledgeable? Well for starters I have bought and sold more times than I can count on both of my hands. If you think somebody that graduates a 75 hour online course makes them an "expert", well then You know how many uneducated and flat out dumb "realtors" i have come across and personally dealt with in the last 20 years? Granted I am sure there are plenty of good ones, but the last time I checked having a RE license isn't a prerequisite for having knowledge of the RE market. If I had a dollar for every time a RE told me "You have to buy now because interest rates are going up!".
Second, you immediately jumped in this thread and said there were drops of 50-80k happening in NJ. That's not going to happen here, and not going to happen to the OP who is looking for a 500k house. You really think a house that is priced at 500k now is going to drop 80k? Seriously. Oh I forgot, you live "where all the NYC wealthy moved to". What's 80k to somebody with millions.
Finally you can joke about it all you want, the beaches are one of the things that makes Long Island desirable. Why do you think there is a massive exodus every summer to go out east? Try asking somebody in Charlotte, Phoenix, or Austin if they wouldn't mind having 10-15 minute access to a real ocean beach (even as "brown" as Long Island's). Not everybody who enjoys "the beach" is actually sitting on the sand. Long Island is a hot market because of the proximity to NYC along with the various amenities and things to do. The beaches and water activities are one of the many things which include (but limited to) the eating, the schools, the healthcare, the wineries, etc. Like I said, different strokes for different folks. Nice try at a jab though.
People who work buying and selling houses shouldn’t be considered knowledgeable. However since you done it, it’s makes you smarter than everyone else. The hypocrisy in your opening statement is beyond stupid. You sound obnoxious and pretentious.
Go back and read my post, I said I already starting seeing houses drop in Nj. Which is 100% true. I didn’t jump on saying when or what it will look like on LI. Umm northern Nj is ALSO a hot market because it’s close to NYC as well. It’s actually way closer then LI and not as congested as the city. So maybe you should do research on other places before you speak. Again for someone who tries to act so smug and smart, you certainly don’t know how to read. It seems like you only give facts and knowledge based on your bubble and circle, your experience. Try stepping out of it and listening.
I’m not trying to say NJ is better than NY, but it’s clear you know nothing about the former.
I never said Northern NJ wasn't a hot market. I think it's you who can't read. Long Island isn't the only "hot market" in the Tri-State area. In many aspects parts of Westchester are even hotter than Long Island supposedly.
I never said anything about other markets, I merely spoke about Long Island and I said you can't post prices coming down in NJ as a sign for things to happen in Long Island. I don't speak of other markets I don't have first hand knowledge on. Perhaps you should do the same. And pretentious? Coming from the person bragging that they "live where all the NYC wealthy live?" Congrats to you and again, nice try at another jab.
And the fact that you said "prices have dropped since March", that's a little bizarre because March, April and even parts of May saw some of the lowest buyer turnouts ever due to the stay at home order. That pent up demand has further fueled the numbers we are seeing now.
Speaking of Northern NJ, care to post what areas are seeing an overall drop in housing prices? Why not post sales, comps, data to back this up? Any seller can list their house for way over even this crazy market just to have them lower their price when they eventually come to reality. That doesn't mean prices are dropping. The overall trend should be "up" if it's considered a good market.
You’re so smart at research and the expert, find it yourself. I don’t have to prove myself to you and I’m not your assistant.
LOL exactly the type of response I was expecting. Carry on.
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| Posted 12/14/20 2:41 PM |
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Re: Housing prices
I don't know. I waiver on this. Housing prices are always insane on Long Island. I purchased a full year before COVID and houses were already hard to get, being purchased the day it was listed for over asking price. We had to pay 5k over asking and it was already overpriced IMO. and now my house value hasn't really gone up. The estimates online show it being valued on $20k over what we paid for it now. I'm worried in the long run we will lose on this house. But most people are saying all the houses are being bought and at asking or above, some in full cash. It's incredible. I will probably die before my house is paid off anyway.
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| Posted 12/14/20 2:53 PM |
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by LastLightGlow
What about the housing bubble of 2005/2006? This affected many of my friends and family very badly. My Grandmother’s house depreciated about 75k in those years. Prices downtrended for a good 6 years before they stabilized and creeped up again. I purchased my first home after the bubble burst and got a great deal. A lot of people lost a lot. Who knows for sure if it’s to happen again currently but I wouldn’t take the chance right now if I could wait.
Yeah, my parents lost at least 100K because of that. and now the property value is $360K MORE than what they sold it at... it's INSANE. The people who bought that house will make out like bandits when they come to sell it. A house they paid half a million for will then be a million. Unless it crashes again of course, but overall Pretty crazy.
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| Posted 12/14/20 3:00 PM |
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Mill188
LIF Adult
Member since 3/09 3073 total posts
Name:
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Re: Housing prices
I work in the business analyzing real estate trends and market values.
I can tell you that the projections are for prices on LI to INCREASE approximately 6-8 percent in 2021. Now are projections wrong sometimes - YUP! But appraisers are trending up for future sales prices.
Can the market sustain it long term? No one really knows at this point. There are several factors going into the increase aside from the whole WFH thing and people wanting to spread out and not be crowded into city living. For example, mortgage rates are low. When mortgage rates are low, housing prices typically rise.
It could be high for a long time. The people we bought our house from purchased the house in 1992 for $140K. We purchased in 2009 for $455K. The current value of my home is approximately $580K - and that's a pretty fair estimate (not a zillow or trulia estimate).
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| Posted 12/14/20 3:13 PM |
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Pomegranate5
LIF Adult
Member since 2/11 4798 total posts
Name:
Pomegranate5
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Pomegranate5
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
So you’re an expert but real estate agents who have been in the industry and bust their @ss for years don’t know? That’s not research, talking to knowledgeable people? What’s makes you so smart on this because you use Google?
You know what makes me so knowledgeable? Well for starters I have bought and sold more times than I can count on both of my hands. If you think somebody that graduates a 75 hour online course makes them an "expert", well then You know how many uneducated and flat out dumb "realtors" i have come across and personally dealt with in the last 20 years? Granted I am sure there are plenty of good ones, but the last time I checked having a RE license isn't a prerequisite for having knowledge of the RE market. If I had a dollar for every time a RE told me "You have to buy now because interest rates are going up!".
Second, you immediately jumped in this thread and said there were drops of 50-80k happening in NJ. That's not going to happen here, and not going to happen to the OP who is looking for a 500k house. You really think a house that is priced at 500k now is going to drop 80k? Seriously. Oh I forgot, you live "where all the NYC wealthy moved to". What's 80k to somebody with millions.
Finally you can joke about it all you want, the beaches are one of the things that makes Long Island desirable. Why do you think there is a massive exodus every summer to go out east? Try asking somebody in Charlotte, Phoenix, or Austin if they wouldn't mind having 10-15 minute access to a real ocean beach (even as "brown" as Long Island's). Not everybody who enjoys "the beach" is actually sitting on the sand. Long Island is a hot market because of the proximity to NYC along with the various amenities and things to do. The beaches and water activities are one of the many things which include (but limited to) the eating, the schools, the healthcare, the wineries, etc. Like I said, different strokes for different folks. Nice try at a jab though.
WOW! Two whole hands worth of buying and selling??? That's amazing.
Anyway, of course the LI market is not going to sustain this. When you have houses on the market and a 20 person bidding war within two days, many of the people having not had the chance to step foot in the house, this is a red flag. People are panic buying.
Residential vacancy is through the roof in NYC, and unless you're saying that we're just going to board up at LEAST 20% of the apartment buildings in the city forever, you must realize that there will be a self correction at some point. There are always self corrections in situations like this. How bad it will be for LI is yet to be seen. But to say that values will trend up like this forever is ridiculous.
But then again you do have those 10+ deals under your belt.
Since when did I speak of the NYC market? They got hammered. But if there is no available inventory to choose from, do you think it's going to make a difference? Lines of 20+ for open houses will dwindle down to 5-10 people. And the only reason why we even have lines is due to social distancing which will hopefully be a thing of the past by later next year.
While there may be 20% vacancy in NYC, there isn't 20% surplus of available housing in Long Island. With that logic, why didn't the LI market dip in 2016-2019 when NYC real estate was at it's peak?
How can you talk about demand on LI during a pandemic without discussing NYC? Where do YOU think all of these buyers are coming from? You say you understand the market and then you say ridiculous things like that.
And what do lines at open houses have to do with anything? I'm referencing actual bids on houses. People panicking at such an extreme rate, so desperate to get any house they can that they'll pay almost anything for a house they've never even walked through.
Your last paragraph shows that you are missing the point entirely. This is a situation that is specifically brought on by a pandemic. A pandemic that has literally traumatized NYC/NY especially badly compared with the rest of the country. Other cities were hit, but nothing like NYC. So when the dust settles, the vaccine rolls out, schools and businesses reopen, people will calm the heck down and start slowly moving back. But who is going to buy their house that they paid 10% over an already inflated asking price for? Or more importantly, how much of a discount will someone demand in order to buy it?
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| Posted 12/14/20 3:20 PM |
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ave1024
I Took The Wrong Road
Member since 12/07 6153 total posts
Name:
That Led To The Wrong Tendencies
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Re: Housing prices
Posted by Pomegranate5
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Pomegranate5
Posted by ave1024
Posted by Sash
So you’re an expert but real estate agents who have been in the industry and bust their @ss for years don’t know? That’s not research, talking to knowledgeable people? What’s makes you so smart on this because you use Google?
You know what makes me so knowledgeable? Well for starters I have bought and sold more times than I can count on both of my hands. If you think somebody that graduates a 75 hour online course makes them an "expert", well then You know how many uneducated and flat out dumb "realtors" i have come across and personally dealt with in the last 20 years? Granted I am sure there are plenty of good ones, but the last time I checked having a RE license isn't a prerequisite for having knowledge of the RE market. If I had a dollar for every time a RE told me "You have to buy now because interest rates are going up!".
Second, you immediately jumped in this thread and said there were drops of 50-80k happening in NJ. That's not going to happen here, and not going to happen to the OP who is looking for a 500k house. You really think a house that is priced at 500k now is going to drop 80k? Seriously. Oh I forgot, you live "where all the NYC wealthy moved to". What's 80k to somebody with millions.
Finally you can joke about it all you want, the beaches are one of the things that makes Long Island desirable. Why do you think there is a massive exodus every summer to go out east? Try asking somebody in Charlotte, Phoenix, or Austin if they wouldn't mind having 10-15 minute access to a real ocean beach (even as "brown" as Long Island's). Not everybody who enjoys "the beach" is actually sitting on the sand. Long Island is a hot market because of the proximity to NYC along with the various amenities and things to do. The beaches and water activities are one of the many things which include (but limited to) the eating, the schools, the healthcare, the wineries, etc. Like I said, different strokes for different folks. Nice try at a jab though.
WOW! Two whole hands worth of buying and selling??? That's amazing.
Anyway, of course the LI market is not going to sustain this. When you have houses on the market and a 20 person bidding war within two days, many of the people having not had the chance to step foot in the house, this is a red flag. People are panic buying.
Residential vacancy is through the roof in NYC, and unless you're saying that we're just going to board up at LEAST 20% of the apartment buildings in the city forever, you must realize that there will be a self correction at some point. There are always self corrections in situations like this. How bad it will be for LI is yet to be seen. But to say that values will trend up like this forever is ridiculous.
But then again you do have those 10+ deals under your belt.
Since when did I speak of the NYC market? They got hammered. But if there is no available inventory to choose from, do you think it's going to make a difference? Lines of 20+ for open houses will dwindle down to 5-10 people. And the only reason why we even have lines is due to social distancing which will hopefully be a thing of the past by later next year.
While there may be 20% vacancy in NYC, there isn't 20% surplus of available housing in Long Island. With that logic, why didn't the LI market dip in 2016-2019 when NYC real estate was at it's peak?
How can you talk about demand on LI during a pandemic without discussing NYC? Where do YOU think all of these buyers are coming from? You say you understand the market and then you say ridiculous things like that.
And what do lines at open houses have to do with anything? I'm referencing actual bids on houses. People panicking at such an extreme rate, so desperate to get any house they can that they'll pay almost anything for a house they've never even walked through.
Your last paragraph shows that you are missing the point entirely. This is a situation that is specifically brought on by a pandemic. A pandemic that has literally traumatized NYC/NY especially badly compared with the rest of the country. Other cities were hit, but nothing like NYC. So when the dust settles, the vaccine rolls out, schools and businesses reopen, people will calm the heck down and start slowly moving back. But who is going to buy their house that they paid 10% over an already inflated asking price for? Or more importantly, how much of a discount will someone demand in order to buy it?
The pandemic while it has affected Long Island, hasn't really affected Long Island to the point you think it has. Look at the Case Shiller numbers.
It has risen to the same rate as it did on 2019.
Long Island was always a hot market. You can only have so many bidding wars on houses to the point where they won't appraise. So housing can only go up so much. There are way more buyers than sellers and inventory is not keeping up with demand.
My point is the RE market in NYC was super hot the last few years until the pandemic hit. Those NYC people are moving elsewhere, however not all of them are moving to Long Island because of a shortage of inventory. There are only so many houses to sell. When the NYC market was hot, Long Island was still a hot market, so even when NYC starts to come back you aren't going to see a big downturn in Long Island because there will still be more buyers vs. sellers.
Case & Point:
Posted by Mill188
I can tell you that the projections are for prices on LI to INCREASE approximately 6-8 percent in 2021. Now are projections wrong sometimes - YUP! But appraisers are trending up for future sales prices.
BIN-GO. And even 6-8% is more than I expected in a single year.
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| Posted 12/14/20 3:27 PM |
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LuckyStar
LIF Adult
Member since 7/14 7274 total posts
Name:
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Housing prices
I follow a lot of city to suburb type blogs and I would argue northern NJ is the hottest of all in the tri-state area, followed by Westchester and CT, with Westchester having a slight edge over CT. I rarely read about anyone without roots on LI picking up and moving to LI.
And if we're going to split hairs about where the wealthy move, only 1 LI town (East Hills) makes the Bloomberg Top 50 richest places in America. NJ has 4, Westchester has 5 and CT has 4.
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| Posted 12/14/20 4:50 PM |
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