Hurricane Irene-what you need to know (update SATURDAY 4:45am)

I will keep updating you. Let's hope for the best case scenario and prepare for the worst case scenario. As always, I can't tell each and every one of you if your flight will be canceled, or your trip will be rough, etc. I wish I could help each of you individually, but I just don't have the time. Prepare yourself with the facts.

Are your flashlights working? Full tank of gas? Do you have tap lights or other lights for your children's room, so they won't freak out in the dark if your power goes off?

This morning she looks to be preparing for a hit on NC's shore, then head up the east coast. If she slams NC, better for LI as she could weaken. IF she glances the NC coast, she won't weaken as much. Right now, she is prepared to be here on Sunday.

No matter what: ocean swimming will be dangerous! Beach erosion will probably occur too.

I hope this picture will update on its own: (M=major hurricane, H=hurricane)



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UPDATE TUESDAY NIGHT

Let me be honest with you. This isn't looking good. I will try to explain this as quickly as I can. Whether it be a hurricane or strong tropical storm is really not the case of bad vs good. In reality, most of these storms have strong winds that extend 200-250 miles from center. This isn't like a severe thunderstorm that hits one town for 10 minutes. This is a flipping hurricane. It's rain and winds can last 12-24 hours. They can be constant for over 10 hours at a time.

Will you see cows flying by? Probably not. (Although, severe weather and tornadoes can happen within a hurricane, but I digress.)

Will you look out your window and say "This is really it?" Yep. This is it for the next 12-24 hours of your life. It will keep going. That is the problem with these storms. THEY KEEP GOING!!!!

Right now, it looks like this entire area (LI/NYC/CT/NJ) is going to get lots of winds and lots of rain. We could be looking at sustained winds of 40-50 mph and over 5 inches of rain. This is sustained for HOURS AND HOURS. Trees will get saturated in the roots and give up the fight against the relentless wind. Power lines will fall.

There is still a chance the track will change. We could see something from anywhere around 100 mph sustained winds for hours to 20 mph sustained for hours.

So even if you see the track isn't directly over your house, this is a big storm. Take this seriously and prepare. I hope to have better updates for you.

The below images only go out 5 days. All of these will become better by Thursday.





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mini-update: I have been answering people's questions in this thread as they come. I can't keep posting all the info bak to my original post here. If anything: check the picture on page 3 that I just responded to in a quote. It explains what we don't want. It explains why we want the storm to move east of montauk.

Many things to look at with this storm:
-Flooding (we have already had too much rain recently, including way inland)
-Winds (when trees are saturated, they fall more easily)
-Storm surge (amount of ocean pushed onto land)

If the storm is moving at 20 mph and is 200 miles in diameter (just using approximate numbers here), it takes 10 hours for the storm to pass from edge to edge where the center is. Even if you're on the outskirts of it, it takes hours to pass.
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UPDATE THURS AM

The forecasted track of Irene has moved slightly west. This is good and bad. If it does make landfall south of us, she will weaken. But as she moves northward she will be traveling along 95. Plus, this puts all of LI in the right front quadrant (For more details on that, see my explanation on page 3), which is the most dangerous large part of the storm.

Our best scenario is for her to be off the east end of LI. This is looking less and less likely. We need to be prepared for relentless winds and rain. We need to be prepared for falling limbs and trees. We need to be prepared for power outages. I am not meaning to scare you. Why wouldn't you prepare?

PEOPLE ON THE SOUTH SHORE: Flooding is very likely south of mountauk highway. The closer you are to the ocean, the more likely you could be under water. I would not leave precious valuables on your floors or in the basement. If you have albums and grandma's old afghan, move it up.

OTHER PEOPLE: Flooding is likely. Lots of rain coming. It can only be absorbed so fast. And with more rain and storms about to hit our area today, we are saturated. We can't handle any more rain right now and we have the potential to see 6-12 inches of rain.

And please stop trying to figure out whether she will be a hurricane or a tropical storm when she gets here. I want you to stand outside and tell me what the difference is between 65mph winds and 75mph winds. WHO KNOWS THAT? DOES IT MATTER?!?!? NO!

Stop arguing over semantics. Is this going to be doomsday? Shouldn't be. Will some people be in a living hell? yes. WIll some people be on here on Monday or Tuesday saying it was all media hype? Yes. We are all in this together. No more b!tching. This is a dangerous situation and the person whose house in completely flooded doesn't want to hear from the person who lost one leaf off their tree. We are all neighbors and we need to check on our neighbors.

AND REMEMBER: THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS JUST THAT, THE CENTER!!!! It will hit LOOOONNNGGGG before the center does.

Gas up your car
Have some spending cash in hand.
Have batteries and flashlights ready.
Remember not to use candles while sleeping!
Be prepared to be inside all day on Sunday. (It's going to be rainy and windy, duh)
Don't go out unless necessary.
Keep your b!tching to yourself.

I will be back.

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Added storm surge map that smdl found:



Storm surge areas and map

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Adding what to expect:
Forecast hasn't changed, but for those of you that have never been through a tropical system: This is how they typically go:

1) High clouds move in, possibly even a day before the storm gets there (you should see them building through the day on Saturday on LI, possibly Friday in souther NJ)

2) Rain bands hit LONG before the storm is close

3) You may then get some sun (to which someone will inevitably complain the hurricane was nothing)

4) Another rain band hits

5) Is that more sun?

6) Hours could go by of rain bands and possible sun (You will then laugh that this hurricane was nothing)

Now the hurricane is about 150 miles away

7) Clouds increase, wind increases, rain increases (It's all gradual, so it's not like a freight train comes)

8) The next 6-12 hours is looking out your window at trees swaying, bending and rain pounding.

9) It's finally starts to brighten

So if you really want me to give you
7:01pm on Saturday, the first raindrops will fall
6:00am Sunday, winds and rain pick up
10:00pm Sunday it's all over

I CAN'T!!! You all live all over the place. Basically, Saturday should be okay on LI. That night will begin the possible bands. If you're south of LI, your day will get a bit crappier sooner. If you're north of LI, your Saturday night should be better.

Want to know the impacts? The Weather Channel is doing a damn good job explaining the high winds, flooding, rain and storm surge. Watch it after the top of the hour for 5 minutes and you can learn a lot.

This storm is not good. And AF is due. Need I say more?
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UPDATE THURS 11pm

Heed the warnings as they come. This is not good. Not much has changed, but I prayed it did. I will not be back on til at least 3pm tomorrow, so listen to the warnings. This is a dangerous storm, no matter what her category is. The storm surge can engulf a lot of our area. Good luck everyone! I will be back Friday afternoon!

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UPDATE FRIDAY 3:45pm

If you are told to evacuate, do it. If you are near another body of water that typically floods, leave. Do not wait til the last minute. If you adhere to common sense, you should be fine.

All eyes will be on how she hits NC and how she weakens with that blow. Not much more to say here until that happens. Even so, not sure I will be back on too much. You have had ample warning. Tie stuff down outside or bring it in. Irene is coming.

God Bless You All!!!!!!!!!

FYI: (These will change soon, so listen when they do)
Hurricane watch means conditions are favorable for a hurricane to hit you

Hurricane Warning means winds in excess of 75mph WILL be hitting you with lots of rain

Tropical storm warning means wnds anywhere from 39-74mph will be hitting with lots of rain

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UPDATE SATURDAY 4:45am (Yea. Why wouldn't I be up?)

So far, so good!

She is weakening along the NC coast!!!!

BUT...............................................

This is not time to relax. Maybe we won't see 90 mph winds, but will still see high sustained winds, storm surge and lots of rain. Things just aren't as bad as they looked 24 hours ago.

She IS coming faster than originally anticipated (although most forecasters anticipated this because they all gain forward speed as they get near our area.) Expect conditions to get worse into late Saturday afternoon/evening. Overnight Saturday into Sunday morning will be the worst.

We pray this is good news. Please continue with your plans as you were yesterday. Have you seen the rain bands, severe weather, high surf and bad weather along NC? Irene is still serious. She just may not blow as much.

The below link was brought to my attention by Barbara to share again with you. I am sorry I forgot to share it again. You can pick the town closest to you: (Good link)

Click here for your closest hourly weather graph

Message edited 8/27/2011 5:32:36 AM.

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Thanks for the info!

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

This really royally SUCKS!!!

Timing couldn't have been worse for my family right now

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

i am having such anxitey about this!

DH is away intill next weekend, we have a basement apartment and we flooded that last rain storm. i wanna cry!

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

I love your weather threads! My Dh was asking if you had one up yet.

Thanks

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

I want to cry!!!! Looks like we may have to cancel our vacation to NC. Thanks Irene for Nothing!!!

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Thank you AGAIN for making forecasts accessible to neophytes like me!

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

I had no idea there was a chance this was coming our way

Thanks for all the info!!

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Thanks for the info!

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Thanks. We have a flight going out Sunday morning so hopefully we won't get delayed and they will be able to go around the storm as we are headed to FL.

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

I'm by Raleigh, NC -- everyone here a bit nervous!!!!!

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

I'm in South Florida. The schools are making the decision tomorrow on whether or not to close on Thursday. I was told they will close if winds are expected to be over 35 MPH - busses won't drive w/ kids.
Really really hope this doesn't hit here. DH is a firefighter and could be mandated to stay at work for a few days.

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Thanks for keeping us posted!!!

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Ugh we are supposed to sail out of NJ on Sunday.

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Im in Wilmington, NC (right on the coast) and we already have an early dismissal on Friday and a delayed opening for Monday morning!! Really hoping she doesn't hit us!!

Message edited 8/23/2011 9:06:53 PM.

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Thanks, Kelly!

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Here is what I need to know: how come I am the only one who didn't feel anything???

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Posted by WhatNow

Here is what I need to know: how come I am the only one who didn't feel anything???

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Thanks Kelly!

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Posted by WhatNow

Here is what I need to know: how come I am the only one who didn't feel anything???

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Posted by waterspout4

Posted by WhatNow

Here is what I need to know: how come I am the only one who didn't feel anything???

Tell DH to try harder!

Re: Hurricane Irene-what you need to know

Oh man, we are supposed to go to Ocean City, MD and Bethany Beach DE this weekend

Message edited 8/23/2011 8:54:25 PM.