An overview of tomorrow's storm (Update Thursday night)

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Kelly

An overview of tomorrow's storm (Update Thursday night)

As always, track of the storm means everything.

You are now asking: Why the hell does every winter storm wait til the last minute to decide on track? Why do meteorologists never know where the snow is going? Truthfully, storms do this all times of the year. But it doesn't matter to most if a storm hits in April that dumps 2 inches of rain or 4 inches of rain. It's all rain. You all care about the total of snow vs rain. That's what makes every meteorologist so scared to pull the trigger on 6 inches of snow. If the storm moves 50 miles (which really isn't that much), you could see more rain.

Anyway, the problem with this forecast is the rain/snow line. Why is this a problem Kelly? The storm is coming in like usual, then is actually moving back WEST and meandering around for a bit before exiting. I'm not following you Kelly.

Think of a storm like a clock. MIddle of the clock is the center. From 9-12, it's cold. From 3-6, it's warm.

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Now pretend there is a line that goes all the way through from 2-8. We will call this the rain/snow line. (Of course, all storms have different 'tilts' to the rain/snow line.)

Now that you have seen how bad I draw, the rain/snow line is forecasted to be around Nassau or NYC. This means that Suffolk will see more rain and mixed precip and Westchester will see more snow. We will all see precipitation, just depends what area of the storm you see. SInce the storm is expected to come, then kind of sight see around NYC, this means the rain/snow line will probably start closer to Islip, then take a weird track closer to NYC.

What does this mean Kelly? Patience my dear LIFers.

Westchester and North, expect a lot of snow (6+ inches). NYC can expect to see a few inches of snow, but if that rain/snow line doesn't make it there, you could see even more. Long Island isn't expecting too much snow at all for Suffolk. Nassau is really the tough part of the forecast. Looking for 3-6 there. This is what is expected tomorrow morning into Friday. (Today's rain is just leftover form the other storm)

Here are your storm totals for snow

rest of NJ totals
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Update Wed night:
The sharpie has moved slightly to the east!!!!!!!!!! (In other words, the rain/snow line is moving further to the east.)

For the love of God Kelly, what does this mean?!?!?!?!?!!?!? Chat Icon

More snow for NYC than originally anticipated. Look at the above snow total links for full updates on snow totals for your area. I can't mention it all here. The further East, like mentioned before, the less snow.

SOme of you have been asking about the winds. My bad for not really explaining before: it will be a bit windy. But the good news about the storm going directly over our area is the winds will really be hitting elsewhere. (They will be hitting other areas very hard. The further from LI/NYC, the windier it will be.)

Look for precip to begin around daybreak, not be too heavy around the NYC/LI area. Most of the precip/snow will hit later in the afternoon into the night. Be careful out there tomorrow.

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Update Thursday morning:

I have sucked at explaining how long this storm is staying in the area. (If you knew me IRL, you would understand that my mind has been elsewhere this week.) This particular storm is literally hanging around for the next 36 hours. (That would be a day and a half for those of you that forgot how many hours were in a day.) WHen I said that the storm wants to sight see around NYC, I meant it.

The low is forecast to track just off the tip of LI. Then it RETROGRADES back over NYC. (There is your weather word of the day, Retrograde, which basically means: go backwards.) It literally will take in the sights around NYC, lower Hudson valley, etc before then heading back out to sea.

This is why today will make LI and NYC think they are doing pretty dang well. I am sure there will be many posts on facebook of people saying: "Oh this isn't so bad. It's just raining here. Stupid weather man." Chat Icon For some reason people believe that storms come in one hour and then leave.

Sorry folks, this storm brought a camera, extra batteries and a map. It may even buy a t-shirt that says 'I love NY'

In essence: The best shot at mixed precip or rain is today. Then it turns to all snow tonight and into tomorrow. Keep an eye on that forecast storm total maps through the day. Those are the two links I posted above. They are your friend. They get updated if the storm decides to change path ever so slightly. Remember: It's all about where the rain/snow line is. If you are west of it most of the time, you are looking at over a foot of snow. East of the line is looking at a few inches.

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Update Thursday night:

The storm is just beginning. It is enjoying its stay and has decided to get a hotel room. If you notice the new snowfall total maps, they have extended them until Saturday morning. This morning the totals only included until Friday afternoon. Not a major difference, but just means it wants to stay a little longer. But Friday is the day when we get into the cold area of the storm and everybody should be seeing snow.

Again, I have no idea about school closings. Nor will I venture a guess.

Also, another storm is coming Sunday. Not a big storm, but more of an annoyance. So the weekend is more blah than anything.

Message edited 2/25/2010 10:32:37 PM.

Posted 2/24/10 9:34 AM