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LMichele
LIF Adolescent
Member since 6/11 573 total posts
Name:
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What am I not getting?
So I consider myself fairly education, although math and science weren't my strong points. I also keep up with the news each day and have been since March.
But I'm struggling to find the answers to these..
1. If our positive test results in NY have consistently be down to 1%, isn't the risk so much lower than it was when our positive results were 48%? Yes, I know people from out of state or those who travel can bring it in, and I know there are those who are asymptomatic, but wouldn't the risk of contracting COVID now be much lower than it was at the height of this in NY? Especially now that we have social distancing and mask orders in place.
2. Why is this pandemic constantly compared to the Spanish Flu? Haven't we come 100+ years in terms of science, technology, research, and medicine?
3. Why is COVID expected to spike again with the flu? It is not peak flu season right now, but it is running rampant across the country. Why is the fear that it will spike again with the flu?
Not trying to be snarky or rude, just really trying to understand all of this.
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Posted 7/23/20 10:54 AM  |
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NervousNell
Just another chapter in life..
Member since 11/09 54921 total posts
Name:
..being a mommy and being a wife!
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Re: What am I not getting?
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
Message edited 7/23/2020 11:10:12 AM.
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| Posted 7/23/20 11:08 AM |
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Naturalmama
Love my boys!!
Member since 1/12 3548 total posts
Name:
Christine
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by NervousNell
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
I find this confusing too. Reopening was going to cause a drastic spike. So was Memorial Day weekend. The protests. July 4th weekend. NONE of that caused huge surges. July 4th caused slight upticks, but nothing crazy.
The south has been surging since early June. So far, that has not affected us. I am not naive- I know it can, and probably eventually will. But I do not believe we will ever get back to where we were in March & April.
I do not believe we should do things like keep kids out of school UNLESS we start to see a concerning spike between now and Labor Day weekend. Because, then I don't feel like they will reopen at all until September of 2021. Which would be a NIGHTMARE.
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| Posted 7/23/20 11:39 AM |
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NervousNell
Just another chapter in life..
Member since 11/09 54921 total posts
Name:
..being a mommy and being a wife!
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by Naturalmama
Posted by NervousNell
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
I find this confusing too. Reopening was going to cause a drastic spike. So was Memorial Day weekend. The protests. July 4th weekend. NONE of that caused huge surges. July 4th caused slight upticks, but nothing crazy.
The south has been surging since early June. So far, that has not affected us. I am not naive- I know it can, and probably eventually will. But I do not believe we will ever get back to where we were in March & April.
I do not believe we should do things like keep kids out of school UNLESS we start to see a concerning spike between now and Labor Day weekend. Because, then I don't feel like they will reopen at all until September of 2021. Which would be a NIGHTMARE.
And what makes anyone think Sept 2021 will be an different than now?
That's the other thing.
Unless the plan is to do away with in person school forever.
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| Posted 7/23/20 11:40 AM |
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LMichele
LIF Adolescent
Member since 6/11 573 total posts
Name:
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What am I not getting?
Well Cuomo just announced he was wrong about us spiking when we reopened, because we reopened correctly compared to other states. So at least he's acknowledging there is no spike.
But I still don't get it. We have the precautions, we have the lower numbers, we also seem to have a lower death rate so did we somewhat figure out a treatment and/or are testing enough to catch it before it gets back.
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| Posted 7/23/20 11:42 AM |
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MrsT809
LIF Adult
Member since 9/09 12167 total posts
Name:
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What am I not getting?
1- I think the risks are much lower and that's why we've been allowed to continue the reopening more and more. Maybe I'm not really sure what you're asking.
2- idk but clearly all our advancements aren't helping that much.
3- I'm not sure that it's expected to spike as much as the need for testing will spike to know who has what and hospitalizations between the two will be higher.
Message edited 7/23/2020 11:45:15 AM.
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| Posted 7/23/20 11:45 AM |
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JennP
LIF Adult
Member since 10/06 3986 total posts
Name:
Jenn
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Re: What am I not getting?
2 - Because they are both "novel" - meaning not a lot is known about either and both are without a vaccine.
The lower death rate for Covid is exactly because of what you described.
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| Posted 7/23/20 12:04 PM |
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blu6385
Member since 5/08 8351 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by LMichele
Well Cuomo just announced he was wrong about us spiking when we reopened, because we reopened correctly compared to other states. So at least he's acknowledging there is no spike.
But I still don't get it. We have the precautions, we have the lower numbers, we also seem to have a lower death rate so did we somewhat figure out a treatment and/or are testing enough to catch it before it gets back.
I would say mostly because we have controlled the spread so less people have it now and a tons of people had it already. Testing and tracing doesn’t do anything but help contain the virus it wouldn’t really help in the death rate.
I think I also heard they have had better knowledge know in how to treat it but no there is no sure treatment because If there was I would think we wouldn’t have the need to take so much precautions.
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| Posted 7/23/20 12:44 PM |
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valentinesbaby
LIF Adult
Member since 2/20 900 total posts
Name:
Valentines
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by Naturalmama
Posted by NervousNell
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
I find this confusing too. Reopening was going to cause a drastic spike. So was Memorial Day weekend. The protests. July 4th weekend. NONE of that caused huge surges. July 4th caused slight upticks, but nothing crazy.
The south has been surging since early June. So far, that has not affected us. I am not naive- I know it can, and probably eventually will. But I do not believe we will ever get back to where we were in March & April.
I do not believe we should do things like keep kids out of school UNLESS we start to see a concerning spike between now and Labor Day weekend. Because, then I don't feel like they will reopen at all until September of 2021. Which would be a NIGHTMARE.
The upticks from the 4th were false positives too so what is really going on?
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| Posted 7/23/20 1:15 PM |
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blu6385
Member since 5/08 8351 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by NervousNell
Posted by Naturalmama
Posted by NervousNell
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
I find this confusing too. Reopening was going to cause a drastic spike. So was Memorial Day weekend. The protests. July 4th weekend. NONE of that caused huge surges. July 4th caused slight upticks, but nothing crazy.
The south has been surging since early June. So far, that has not affected us. I am not naive- I know it can, and probably eventually will. But I do not believe we will ever get back to where we were in March & April.
I do not believe we should do things like keep kids out of school UNLESS we start to see a concerning spike between now and Labor Day weekend. Because, then I don't feel like they will reopen at all until September of 2021. Which would be a NIGHTMARE.
And what makes anyone think Sept 2021 will be an different than now?
That's the other thing.
Unless the plan is to do away with in person school forever.
the vaccine will probably be out by then!!
I heard Deblasio say school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out!!
So at least he finally said it. The vaccine is the answer!
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| Posted 7/23/20 1:26 PM |
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charon54
My two boys!
Member since 5/05 7279 total posts
Name:
Rebecca
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Re: What am I not getting?
For #3, I think the symptoms are similar so the concern is they won't be able to tell them apart and one is much more dangerous than the other. Also we normally can handle the influenza spike but to handle that alongside another COVID spike would be difficult for the hospitals.
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| Posted 7/23/20 2:21 PM |
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mrsrainbow
LIF Adult
Member since 1/17 1465 total posts
Name:
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What am I not getting?
we are not living in normal times. no matter how educated one thinks they are (and unless someone has receipts, multiple advanced degrees, peer reviewed research of their own writing, statistical samples, conducts independent reviews, writes their own thesis, etc etc etc etc) i simply don't want to hear people saying they're educated on this. no they aren't. no one is except advanced scientists who are actively working on COVID right now.
we have to follow the rules. period.
american exceptionalism does not exempt us from this. if someone can't figure out how to critically think and follow the rules, they are not nearly as educated as they think.
Message edited 7/23/2020 2:48:44 PM.
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| Posted 7/23/20 2:47 PM |
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Naturalmama
Love my boys!!
Member since 1/12 3548 total posts
Name:
Christine
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by mrsrainbow
we are not living in normal times. no matter how educated one thinks they are (and unless someone has receipts, multiple advanced degrees, peer reviewed research of their own writing, statistical samples, conducts independent reviews, writes their own thesis, etc etc etc etc) i simply don't want to hear people saying they're educated on this. no they aren't. no one is except advanced scientists who are actively working on COVID right now.
we have to follow the rules. period.
american exceptionalism does not exempt us from this. if someone can't figure out how to critically think and follow the rules, they are not nearly as educated as they think.
I don't think OP said she wouldn't follow the rules. She wasn't saying she was educated on Covid. She was saying she is an educated person, in general. I am a highly educated person, with two masters degrees. I don't claim to know anything about Covid. I am not a scientist or a researcher and I don't claim to be. I give my opinion about schools opening, but I admit my opinion may be wrong. Nobody knows. But I am an educated person, and I'm sure most people on this site are.
Message edited 7/23/2020 3:03:32 PM.
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| Posted 7/23/20 2:58 PM |
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busymomonli
Resident Insomniac
Member since 4/13 2050 total posts
Name:
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What am I not getting?
The very reason we went from 48% to 1% is because we are doing what we are doing, i.e. masks, social distancing, working from home. We must continue to do that to keep those numbers from rising again. If we just release everyone to no restrictions, we will end up back where we started. The risk is lower because of the precautions we are taking.
I think it colder weather, things spread faster because people are contained indoors and not outside. Hence the reason flu spreads quickly in the winter.
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| Posted 7/23/20 3:08 PM |
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LMichele
LIF Adolescent
Member since 6/11 573 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by mrsrainbow
we are not living in normal times. no matter how educated one thinks they are (and unless someone has receipts, multiple advanced degrees, peer reviewed research of their own writing, statistical samples, conducts independent reviews, writes their own thesis, etc etc etc etc) i simply don't want to hear people saying they're educated on this. no they aren't. no one is except advanced scientists who are actively working on COVID right now.
we have to follow the rules. period.
american exceptionalism does not exempt us from this. if someone can't figure out how to critically think and follow the rules, they are not nearly as educated as they think.
I am not sure what your response means. No one here claimed to be an expert on COVID or spoke out against wearing masks and not following rules.
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| Posted 7/23/20 3:24 PM |
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LMichele
LIF Adolescent
Member since 6/11 573 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by busymomonli
The very reason we went from 48% to 1% is because we are doing what we are doing, i.e. masks, social distancing, working from home. We must continue to do that to keep those numbers from rising again. If we just release everyone to no restrictions, we will end up back where we started. The risk is lower because of the precautions we are taking.
I think it colder weather, things spread faster because people are contained indoors and not outside. Hence the reason flu spreads quickly in the winter.
But this is what I don’t get-if so few people have it now and the infection rate is so low, how would it spike again if we open up a bit more? Wouldn’t there be less of the virus out there?
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| Posted 7/23/20 3:25 PM |
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busymomonli
Resident Insomniac
Member since 4/13 2050 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by LMichele
Posted by busymomonli
The very reason we went from 48% to 1% is because we are doing what we are doing, i.e. masks, social distancing, working from home. We must continue to do that to keep those numbers from rising again. If we just release everyone to no restrictions, we will end up back where we started. The risk is lower because of the precautions we are taking.
I think it colder weather, things spread faster because people are contained indoors and not outside. Hence the reason flu spreads quickly in the winter.
But this is what I don’t get-if so few people have it now and the infection rate is so low, how would it spike again if we open up a bit more? Wouldn’t there be less of the virus out there?
Well, when you are talking about 7.6 million people on the island, 1% is still 76,000 people. If each one person infected 5 or so others because of no masks or no distancing, and that trend continues, we could easily see another outbreak in only a month. That's just my take.
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| Posted 7/23/20 3:43 PM |
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Naturalmama
Love my boys!!
Member since 1/12 3548 total posts
Name:
Christine
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by busymomonli
Posted by LMichele
Posted by busymomonli
The very reason we went from 48% to 1% is because we are doing what we are doing, i.e. masks, social distancing, working from home. We must continue to do that to keep those numbers from rising again. If we just release everyone to no restrictions, we will end up back where we started. The risk is lower because of the precautions we are taking.
I think it colder weather, things spread faster because people are contained indoors and not outside. Hence the reason flu spreads quickly in the winter.
But this is what I don’t get-if so few people have it now and the infection rate is so low, how would it spike again if we open up a bit more? Wouldn’t there be less of the virus out there?
Well, when you are talking about 7.6 million people on the island, 1% is still 76,000 people. If each one person infected 5 or so others because of no masks or no distancing, and that trend continues, we could easily see another outbreak in only a month. That's just my take.
I agree. Which is why we are nowhere near being able to go back to the life we knew in February. I do think we will be able to get more pieces of normal back as time goes on- but not a full reopening of everything as normal for probably another 12 months.
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| Posted 7/23/20 3:53 PM |
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mrsrainbow
LIF Adult
Member since 1/17 1465 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by LMichele
Posted by mrsrainbow
we are not living in normal times. no matter how educated one thinks they are (and unless someone has receipts, multiple advanced degrees, peer reviewed research of their own writing, statistical samples, conducts independent reviews, writes their own thesis, etc etc etc etc) i simply don't want to hear people saying they're educated on this. no they aren't. no one is except advanced scientists who are actively working on COVID right now.
we have to follow the rules. period.
american exceptionalism does not exempt us from this. if someone can't figure out how to critically think and follow the rules, they are not nearly as educated as they think.
I am not sure what your response means. No one here claimed to be an expert on COVID or spoke out against wearing masks and not following rules.
i guess i don't get your post?
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| Posted 7/23/20 3:54 PM |
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MrsT809
LIF Adult
Member since 9/09 12167 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by LMichele
Posted by busymomonli
The very reason we went from 48% to 1% is because we are doing what we are doing, i.e. masks, social distancing, working from home. We must continue to do that to keep those numbers from rising again. If we just release everyone to no restrictions, we will end up back where we started. The risk is lower because of the precautions we are taking.
I think it colder weather, things spread faster because people are contained indoors and not outside. Hence the reason flu spreads quickly in the winter.
But this is what I don’t get-if so few people have it now and the infection rate is so low, how would it spike again if we open up a bit more? Wouldn’t there be less of the virus out there?
But we are opening more bit by bit. Things like indoor dining that started a few weeks ago, dance and art classes, youth sports have been added back in the last week or two. I don't think we should have packed crowds anywhere yet but progress in opening is still happening bc we're keeping the infection rate low and taking precautions.
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| Posted 7/23/20 4:09 PM |
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valentinesbaby
LIF Adult
Member since 2/20 900 total posts
Name:
Valentines
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by blu6385
Posted by NervousNell
Posted by Naturalmama
Posted by NervousNell
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
I find this confusing too. Reopening was going to cause a drastic spike. So was Memorial Day weekend. The protests. July 4th weekend. NONE of that caused huge surges. July 4th caused slight upticks, but nothing crazy.
The south has been surging since early June. So far, that has not affected us. I am not naive- I know it can, and probably eventually will. But I do not believe we will ever get back to where we were in March & April.
I do not believe we should do things like keep kids out of school UNLESS we start to see a concerning spike between now and Labor Day weekend. Because, then I don't feel like they will reopen at all until September of 2021. Which would be a NIGHTMARE.
And what makes anyone think Sept 2021 will be an different than now?
That's the other thing.
Unless the plan is to do away with in person school forever.
the vaccine will probably be out by then!!
I heard Deblasio say school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out!!
So at least he finally said it. The vaccine is the answer!
I am shocked so many people would be willing to take a brand new vaccine. One that hasn’t been tested and you don’t know what it will do to your body.
How do we not know that Covid will have less side effects to our body then a vaccine?
To me putting something in my body that is foreign is more of a risk. No thank you.
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| Posted 7/23/20 4:42 PM |
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RainyDay
LIF Adult
Member since 6/15 3990 total posts
Name:
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What am I not getting?
We are going to end up like that movie I am Legend....turning into zombies from some great new vaccine.
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| Posted 7/23/20 5:06 PM |
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blu6385
Member since 5/08 8351 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by valentinesbaby
Posted by blu6385
Posted by NervousNell
Posted by Naturalmama
Posted by NervousNell
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
I find this confusing too. Reopening was going to cause a drastic spike. So was Memorial Day weekend. The protests. July 4th weekend. NONE of that caused huge surges. July 4th caused slight upticks, but nothing crazy.
The south has been surging since early June. So far, that has not affected us. I am not naive- I know it can, and probably eventually will. But I do not believe we will ever get back to where we were in March & April.
I do not believe we should do things like keep kids out of school UNLESS we start to see a concerning spike between now and Labor Day weekend. Because, then I don't feel like they will reopen at all until September of 2021. Which would be a NIGHTMARE.
And what makes anyone think Sept 2021 will be an different than now?
That's the other thing.
Unless the plan is to do away with in person school forever.
the vaccine will probably be out by then!!
I heard Deblasio say school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out!!
So at least he finally said it. The vaccine is the answer!
I am shocked so many people would be willing to take a brand new vaccine. One that hasn’t been tested and you don’t know what it will do to your body.
How do we not know that Covid will have less side effects to our body then a vaccine?
To me putting something in my body that is foreign is more of a risk. No thank you.
I don’t agree with it but I am just saying that seems to the the answer.
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| Posted 7/23/20 5:42 PM |
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blu6385
Member since 5/08 8351 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by RainyDay
We are going to end up like that movie I am Legend....turning into zombies from some great new vaccine.
 DH said the same exact thing to me the other day!!
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| Posted 7/23/20 5:43 PM |
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blu6385
Member since 5/08 8351 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by LMichele
Posted by mrsrainbow
we are not living in normal times. no matter how educated one thinks they are (and unless someone has receipts, multiple advanced degrees, peer reviewed research of their own writing, statistical samples, conducts independent reviews, writes their own thesis, etc etc etc etc) i simply don't want to hear people saying they're educated on this. no they aren't. no one is except advanced scientists who are actively working on COVID right now.
we have to follow the rules. period.
american exceptionalism does not exempt us from this. if someone can't figure out how to critically think and follow the rules, they are not nearly as educated as they think.
I am not sure what your response means. No one here claimed to be an expert on COVID or spoke out against wearing masks and not following rules.
I was waiting for an answer like this.
Don’t worry your post didn’t say anything like that but anytime you have questions on stuff that doesn’t make sense people like jump and say just following the rules, your not exempt or anexpert blah blah blah.
Even if it’s not relevant to your post 
Message edited 7/23/2020 5:49:22 PM.
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| Posted 7/23/20 5:45 PM |
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