DancinBarefoot
06ers Rock!!
Member since 1/07 9534 total posts
Name:
The One My Mother Gave Me ;-)
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by LMichele
So I consider myself fairly education, although math and science weren't my strong points. I also keep up with the news each day and have been since March.
But I'm struggling to find the answers to these..
1. If our positive test results in NY have consistently be down to 1%, isn't the risk so much lower than it was when our positive results were 48%? Yes, I know people from out of state or those who travel can bring it in, and I know there are those who are asymptomatic, but wouldn't the risk of contracting COVID now be much lower than it was at the height of this in NY? Especially now that we have social distancing and mask orders in place.
2. Why is this pandemic constantly compared to the Spanish Flu? Haven't we come 100+ years in terms of science, technology, research, and medicine?
3. Why is COVID expected to spike again with the flu? It is not peak flu season right now, but it is running rampant across the country. Why is the fear that it will spike again with the flu?
Not trying to be snarky or rude, just really trying to understand all of this.
Based on my research this is what I can offer in response to your questions.
1. Yes, the risk is lower, but it's not so low that we don't have to be concerned about hot spots. Additionally, how many people are getting tested for the heck of it? The better question to ask is who are the people getting tested to understand whether or not that 1% positive rate is problematic. What I mean is, if only people with symptoms are getting tested, then we are not catching asymptomatic people. If only first responders and health care workers are getting tested, then we have no idea how widespread the infection rate is in the general population. How many people have mild symptoms and chalk it up to allergies and never get tested? 1% is low, but it doesn't tell the complete story.
2. My understanding of why this is compared to 1918 flu is because of how quickly and rapidly it spread, and the death rate. Yes, medicine has come a long way in 100 years, but we don't have any better treatment for Covid-19 then we did for the Spanish flu. The difference between then and now in terms of medical science as I see it, was the ability to sequence the DNA/RNA of the virus to identify it as novel, and attempt therapies to target it based on what was (and continues to be) discovered in a way we couldn't 100 years ago.
3. I don't think Covid is necessarily expected to spike again with the flu. I think the fear is they don't know how Covid and the seasonal flu will interact if someone contracts both. That is on top of not knowing whether having the flu will make a person more susceptible to Covid. Add to that the fact that we know Covid is easily transmitted indoors with lots of people. The colder weather means people are indoors more than outdoors.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a scientist or medical professional. The information stated above is based on things I have read, and the conclusions I have drawn from those readings.
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